Christie Adviser Update

Chris Christie adviser Ken Miller wrote this E-mail (red italics) to Denis Ables who shared it with Marc Morano and myself. My comments are interspersed

Denis

I am not sure to what you are referring.  The current estimate for global sea level rise is 3.1 mm/yr from three different groups, but see the NCAR group here http://sealevel.colorado.edu/The Legos (Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale) group reported slightly lower rates 2.5 mm.yr up to 2007 (Cazenave et al., 2008), but not < 1 mm/yr!!!

The newest sea level measuring satellite, Europe’s Envisat satellite shows less than 1mm/year, with sea level currently the lowest in their eight year record.

http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/

Jason 2 also shows less than 2 mm/year

http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/

The average of all currently active NOAA global tide gauges is less than half a millimeter per year.

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/MSL_global_trendtable.html
https://spreadsheets.google.com/

Look at the local recordsAtlantic City, current 5 mm/yr; 1mm/yr is local subsidence, 1 mm/yr is regional subsidence

I have no idea where he got the 5mm/year number. PSMSL shows sea level rising at 1.5 mm/year in Atlantic City over the last 15 years. The long term rise is less than 4 mm/year.

http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/180.php

Lewes, DE and Battery are 4 mm/yr, 1 mm/yr is regional subsidence

by the end of the century it would be 45 cm rise at Atlantic City and 40 cm at other Jersey locations; this is only slightly greater than 20th century which saw 40 and 30 cmm rises, respectively

PSMSL shows about 1/3 of the number Ken Miller is claiming for the current rise rate. But in the original article, he was actually claiming almost 100cm. He was off by an order of magnitude.

But sea  is accelerating.  

No it isn’t. All of the satellites show a decline in rise rates over the last five years.

Recent estimates from satellite data show a trend of -36 Gt/yr2 ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica, or about 0.1 mm/yr acceleration.  This means by 2050, temperature expansion  alone yields 9 cm, mountain glaciers yield 8 cm, and Greenland and Antarctica yield 15 cm, for a total of 32 cm (~1 foot) according to Rignot et al

By 2100, Greenland and Antarctica yield >0.5 m,  plus the 20-60 cm computed for mountain glaciers and thermal expansion.

The conclusions for Greenland and Antarctica come from JPL  (Rignot et al., 2011) and Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale (Czaenave et al.).   I stand by the ‘rithmetic.

Ken Miller

Those studies have been known to be flawed for about nine months.

Climate: New study slashes estimate of icecap loss
By Richard Ingham (AFP) – Sep 7, 2010

a new study published in the September issue of Nature Geoscience suggests that the true melt rate might be much slower than that. (Access a PDF of the study here.) A joint team of American and Dutch scientists took another look at the GRACE data and found that Greenland and West Antarctica may be melting  just half as fast the earlier studies estimated. As researcher Bert Vermeersen, a professor at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, told the AFP, the earlier estimates failed to account for glacial isostatic adjustment—the rebounding of the Earth’s crust after the end of the last Ice Age:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iFYPF7wJrj-K5GTv1-oZsHhqrzIg

Conclusion, Ken Miller presented Governor Christie likely flawed sea level numbers, well outside of the range of IPCC projections.

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12 Responses to Christie Adviser Update

  1. Dave N says:

    I’m PMSL over the PSMSL

  2. Sean Ogilvie says:

    Did Denis Ables reply to Ken Miller? If so it will be interesting to see Miller’s reaction or lack of.

  3. Patagon says:

    “Mountain glaciers yield 8 cm”

    I wonder where those data come from.

    See “Contribution of the Patagonia Icefields of South America to Sea Level Rise” http://www.sciencemag.org/content/302/5644/434.abstract They estimate 0.105 mm per year, that is 0.42 cm in the next forty years, not really much to worry about.

    Patagonia is the largest ice field outside the poles, as for the rest of the mountain glaciers, the impact is negligible.

  4. Mike Davis says:

    It all depends on the start and end date you chose to determine the current and projected rate of sea level change. By picking though to peak a dramatic trend in sea level rise can be seen and by picking peak to though a dramatic fall in sea level can be seen. Because of all the factors involved over a long term period in that particular region and sub region specifically they are sinking faster than the sea level is rising. There are some who would say that a 25 meter sea level rise in that region would be a good start towards urban renewal!

    • Mike Davis says:

      My spell checker stopped working it was supposed to be TROUGH!

      • Mike Davis says:

        I could have used Ridge and Valley as a descriptor rather than Peak and Trough for High and Low points in the graph but that is how we talked about what we saw on an oscilloscope.

  5. Lazlo says:

    I well remember a female Israeli Defence Force officer making this statement some years ago: ‘something you have to understand about these people is that they lie’

  6. suyts says:

    Sigh, with friends like that……….

    Steve, did you guys line this Ken Miller guy out? Or are they feeding at the trough already?

    This is why we’re not making as much headway as we should be. The facts are out and the people needing to seize the information are looking the other way! Someone needs to slap that cool-aid out of Miller’s hand, or ship him out.

    • Marc Morano is all over this.

      • suyts says:

        Sweet, people like Ken Miller frustrate me to no end.

        Just a heads up to Mr. Miller………. Pay attention, boy!

        To Gov. Christie. Please don’t run for higher office until you can surround yourself with people that understand the information they’re given and have the ability to discern information from hyperbole. Or, (and I know this is a radical thought) check the data out for yourself.

  7. Scott says:

    But sea is accelerating.

    Really! Since it was previously not going anywhere, this means it’s going somewhere now! Where is it going?

    -Scott

  8. Amino Acids in Meteorites says:

    New bumper sticker:

    Chris Christy NOT 2012

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