By: Dr. Ricky Rood (Weather Underground)Published: June 2, 2012So I want to end this blog with a party trick. We have had 327 months in a row above the average temperature of the 20th century. If we played the game that there was a 50% chance of each month being above (heads) or below (tails) average, we have now rolled heads 327 times in a row. How likely is that? I think that is one half raised to 327th power, which is about 1 chance in a number that is 1 with 98 zeros after it. That makes buying a mega lotto ticket look like a solid investment. We live in a extraordinary spring in an extraordinary times. After a rocky start, my potatoes look pretty good..
The first problem with his stupid analogy is that older temperatures are adjusted downwards and recent temperatures are adjusted upwards. This guarantees that all recent temperatures are too high, because the people in charge cheated.
The second problem is that even if temperatures had of been completely flat for the last 327 months, they would still be “above average.” Ricky’s trick tells us absolutely nothing about the trend.
Is Rood being intentionally deceptive, or is he just not very bright?