How The GISS Temperature Adjustments Work

With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk.

Attributed to John von Neumann by Enrico Fermi, as quoted by Freeman Dyson in “A meeting with Enrico Fermi” in Nature 427 (22 January 2004) p. 297

John von Neumann – Wikiquote

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6 Responses to How The GISS Temperature Adjustments Work

  1. tckev says:

    John von Neumann only had a very basic computer model. With today’s computing power we can make the elephant do anything – sun, snow, rain, lightning, anything !

  2. Blade says:

    Off Topic (Steve, you need Tips and Notes or a posted email address)

    Here’s another doozy from Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, Canada …

    media release
    Study predicts imminent irreversible planetary collapse
    June 06, 2012

    ROTFLMAO! You cannot make this stuff up. Parody is now an impossible task!

    • tckev says:

      Funnier is SFU Strategic Vision that is “Simon Fraser University – Engaging the World”. On the basis of this report there’s not a lot of need really.

    • Billy Liar says:

      I particularly liked the line:

      Once a threshold-induced planetary state shift occurs, there’s no going back.

      No indeed! Not unless you’ve got a time machine.

      • Gail Combs says:

        He forgot to mention the next threshold-induced planetary state shift is to glaciation.

        To give you a feel for just how close to glaciation we are you can look at the calculations from NOAA:

        Holocene peak insolation: 522.5 Wm-2
        NOW (modern Warm Period) 476 Wm-2
        Depth of the last ice age – around 463 Wm−2

        A fall 2012 paper Can we predict the duration of an interglacial? gives the calculated solar insolation values of several glacial inceptions:
        Current value – insolation = 479W m−2 (from that paper)

        MIS 7e – insolation = 463 W m−2,
        MIS 11c – insolation = 466 W m−2,
        MIS 13a – insolation = 500 W m−2,
        MIS 15a – insolation = 480 W m−2,
        MIS 17 – insolation = 477 W m−2

        The Holocene interglacial is now 11,717 years old….. That’s two centuries or so beyond half the present precession cycle (or 23,000/2=11,500). Only one interglacial , MIS-11, since the Mid-Pleistocene Transition has lasted longer than about half a precession cycle.

        Any hope that the Holocene would go long was shot down by Lisiecki and Raymo in 2005 in their rebuttal of Loutre and Berger, 2003.

        The Sea level High Stand was thousands of years ago and the earth is now cooling off in the last stages of the Holocene.

        Holocene sea-level change and ice-sheet history in the Vestfold
        Hills, East Antarctica
        Dan Zwartz ) , Michael Bird, John Stone, Kurt Lambeck

        A new Holocene sea-level record from the Vestfold Hills, Antarctica, has been obtained by dating the lacustrine–marine and marine–lacustrine transitions that occur in sediment cores from lakes which were formerly connected to the sea. From an elevation of ; 7.5 m 8000 yr ago, relative sea-level rose to a maximum ; 9 m above present sea-level 6200 yr ago. Since then, sea-level has fallen monotonically until the present….

        The Holocene sea level Highstand was also ~ 1.5 meter above todays sea-level 6,000 years ago in geologically stable South Vietnam.

        Southeast Vietnam beachrocks reveal that the mid-Holocene sea-level highstand slightly above + 1.4 m was reached between 6.7 and 5.0 ka, with a peak value close to + 1.5 m around 6.0 ka….

        This sea level evidence is backed up by the paper, Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic It says: “Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ~11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes. The extra energy elevated early Holocene summer temperatures throughout the Arctic 1-3°C above 20th century averages, enough to completely melt many small glaciers throughout the Arctic, although the Greenland Ice Sheet was only slightly smaller than at present.”

        Another, more recent study in Norway agrees:

        A new approach for reconstructing glacier variability based on lake sediments recording input from more than one glacier January 2012
        Kristian Vasskoga Øyvind Paaschec, Atle Nesjea, John F. Boyled, H.J.B. Birks

        …. A multi-proxy numerical analysis demonstrates that it is possible to distinguish a glacier component in the ~ 8000-yr-long record, based on distinct changes in grain size, geochemistry, and magnetic composition…. This signal is …independently tested through a mineral magnetic provenance analysis of catchment samples. Minimum glacier input is indicated between 6700–5700 cal yr BP, probably reflecting a situation when most glaciers in the catchment had melted away, whereas the highest glacier activity is observed around 600 and 200 cal yr BP. During the local Neoglacial interval (~ 4200 cal yr BP until present), five individual periods of significantly reduced glacier extent are identified at ~ 3400, 3000–2700, 2100–2000, 1700–1500, and ~ 900 cal yr BP….

        The authors of all these papers simply state that most small glaciers likely didn’t exist 6,000 years ago, but the highest period of the glacial increase has been in the past 600 years. This is hardly surprising with ~9% less solar energy.

        9% less solar energy translates to ~120 W/m² less solar energy based on 1,361 W/m² (solar min) and 1362 W/m² (solar max) @ ToA.

        The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Schimel, 1996] estimated that the change solar forcing between 1850 (start of the industrial age] and 1990 was only •0.3 W/m 2 at the top of the atmosphere vs. 1.5 W/m 2 for forcing anthropogenic CO2 [cf., Reid, 1997].

        In evaluating the overall significance of solar vs. CO2 forcings, an apples-to-apples comparison would be to contrast the role of these two parameters on an absolute scale. For incoming solar radiation, the absolute forcing amounts to around 340 W m–2 at the top of the atmosphere. The absolute forcing of atmospheric CO2 is estimated at about 32-34 W m–2 (see pp. 202–203 of Kiehl and Trenberth 1997). (A recent publication by Huang [2013, p. 1707], however, has calculated this value may be as high as 44.1 W m–2.) Small changes in the absolute forcing of the Sun can easily result in values much larger than the predicted changes in radiative forcing typically associated with increasing CO2, and these forcings could easily influence Earth’s climate


        So even if you are talking 9% of Trenbreth’s “incoming solar radiation… absolute forcing,… around 340 W m–2 at the top of the atmosphere” the reduction in solar radiation since the Holocene climate Optimum is 30.6 W m–2 , and is equivalent to the entire CO2 forcing [32-44 W m–2] with mankind’s contribution being 1.5 W/m 2 for the forcing of anthropogenic CO2 [cf., Reid, 1997].

        Can you see how completely nonsensical the whole scam is once you look at the entire Holocene?

        Can you see that the climate money SHOULD be used to determine just what forcings (I hate that word) kick the earth into glaciation instead of worrying about a critically LOW, essential to life, gas?

  3. Andy DC says:

    How do you explain the big climate change that took place 12,000 years ago, before evil humans became a factor? Yes, maybe we should send them back 15,000 in a time machine so they can see mile thick ice sheets down to Chicago, without miserable humanity to blame.

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