Guest Post By Joe Bastardi
Sound Meteorological reasons for US temperature fluctuations as the globe cools overall
The last year the US has been warm and it can be directly traced to the changes taking place in the Pacific as the cooling PDO deepens, resulting in a fall in global temps, but rapid responses up and down across the US based on the water in the tropical Pacific. The theory is simple. The cooling of the Pacific tropical waters overall forces a global reaction that leads to the start of the cool down, that will be shown In a chart below, but the US temp response is inverse to the temps in the central Pacific relative to the temps In the eastern Pacific . The physical reaction will be discussed below, and it will be made clear as to why simply looking at what is going on over 10% of the globe is pure agenda driven drivel that the AGW crowd , pushed by many in government and science in this country, can be revealed as ignorance to basic sound logic, common sense, and science
The key is that no matter what the water temp, it has to be warmer in the central Pacific than eastern Pacific. If you have a warm event going on ( the el nino) then the core of the warmth must be in the in the central Pacific. If a cold event ( la nina) then the only way the US is cold is if the water is colder near South America. If the core of the cold is back west, then it creates a pressure and temperature pattern across the globe that will force it to be warm in the US . The same type of thing happened in the mild la nina winters of the MID 1970s, before the reversal in the late 70s, something I believe could happen this winter!
in a cold regime, lets look mid 09 to mid 10 its warmer in the center
so you understand the physical reasons, it has to do with the overall global temp and the results of warming and cooling of this area of immense energy on the global pattern. Warm the water in the central pac and you create lower than normal pressures in this area and there has to be compensating rises in pressure over N America. This is greatest in the winter season. Why? because in the tropical pacific seasonal temp variaions are much less than in the temperate regions, so a slight pressure fall here because of warming will demand a bigger response to the positive where its cold, again remember the lesson of the cold morning vs the hot afternoon and how easy it is to get temps to bounce up and down when its very cold ( takes very little energy change) as opposed to when its hot. The same change in energy for 1 degree at 80 will produce more than a 15 degree change around 0.
Now look at the Pacific while the US has been warm over the last year
This demands a warm response somewhere and its over the US. But it shows in no uncertain terms why the AGW crowd argument lacks sound physical foundations. They are clueless as to the true downturn that is in progress here in terms of the reduction of energy, or if you will the turning down of the earths thermostat and so they focus on the one area it was warm, the US. But you can see the rapid reduction not only in this crucial area of energy, but in the mid troposphere. It shows, with the statements made by people on the US warmth, an amazing lack of actual examination of the weather and understanding of climate cycle theory. To them any fact that wont agree with them, no matter how soundly based in physical realities, does not exist
IT HAS TO WARM OVER US WHEN IT GETS THIS COLD IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC but the overall affect on the globe if we integrate from the surface to where their trapping hot spot is supposed to be is for a fall in temp! But do we hear that? Of course not, all we see is their head in the sand, refusing to look at the entire picture so they say the globe is warming EVEN WHILE THE ACTUAL TEMPS SAY ITS NOT
So you hear one nonsense statement after another come out that will not confront the physical realities of the flip in the climate cycle that is starting to occur. In the shorter term decades, its all the oceans since they have 1000 times the heat capacity of air. In the bigger picture, of course the sun. We look here at 2meters on cfsr which by the way is an NCEP product, not Heartland Institute or EIB. It’s the National Centers of Environmental Prediction
You would have to blind not to see the same jagged trend down has started since the pdo flipped to cold, that started up in the late 70s and 80s when it flipped to warm. In the Bigger picture, Roy Spencers chart which starts when the PDO flipped to warm, but after leveling off is also starting to show the downturn
and we can look at 14k seeing how warm it was in 2010 and how it cooled since then ( the tan line is 2010)
and at 25 k, the bottom part of the “trapping hot spot” ( tan line 2010)
So when you look at this
and find its the coolest start to a month, though its still warm overall , you can so say ”so what” or you can understand that given the theory I am laying out here and have been for a few months now ( remember I forecasted a surge in global temps against the normals for spring and early summer, so this is not a surprise) you can see why what is rumbling around now may be the start of the atmospheric avalanche that the CFS is not shy about touting
this would be as bad as any winter since the late 1970s. let me be clear I think a colder winter is on the way, but this model is carried to the extreme! That being said, there were physical reasons that do not have anythng to do with this agenda driven drivel of co2 that people are spouting that lead to last winter just like the natural variation will lead to this winter. So I outline those first for you. Of course the crowd I must deal with would take a winter like this and twist it to somehow be because they are right. But they do that after the fact with everything. But explaining the why before the what and at least giving you the chance to see why something may be happening, we can expose these people for charlatans they are.. Sound reasoning and common sense can prevail even in this age of Utopian Voodoo