Credible evidence of climate change arises
By Robert Oglesby and Donald Wuebbles
Oglesby is a professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Wuebbles is the Harry E. Preble Endowed Professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois.
It’s been a hot start in 2012. Over Memorial Day weekend, high-temperature records were set in 16 states, including every state that’s home to a Big Ten school. Omaha’s high temperature hit 94 degrees — the hottest May 27 temperature in more than 100 years of record-keeping. Chicago, Des Moines, Detroit, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Madison, Wis., and Pittsburgh all hit record highs that weekend.
The professors seem to be endowed with confirmation bias, ignorance and failing grade school math skills.
The US has more than 1,000 temperature stations, and the length of the temperature database averages about 100 years. On any given day, the odds of breaking a high temperature record at any station are 100 to 1. With 1,000 stations and a three day weekend, we would expect to have about 30 high temperature records set in the US. This is the most basic statistics and it is incredible that the professors don’t understand it.
But it gets worse. Their temperature data is garbage. On Memorial Day Weekend 1934, the temperature in Iowa was 111 degrees. Almost 20 degrees hotter than this year.
May 30, 1934: What would become one of the hottest summers on record in Iowa began to intensify as a heat wave in the last three days of May resulted in nearly every location in the state exceeding 100 F on at least one of those three days. The heat wave peaked on the 30th when the temperature soared to as high as 111 F near Inwood which is the highest temperature ever recorded in Iowa in May. Other high temperatures on the 30th included 110 F at Boone, 109 F at Logan and Spencer, 108 F at Le Mars, and 107 F at Storm Lake. Des Moines and Sioux City also set their respective May records as both reached a high of 105 F. Amazingly this extremely hot weather came only a few days after unseasonably cool temperatures in the 30s had been recorded across much of the state with frost on the 25th and 26th. In fact, at Boone the low temperature on the morning of the 25th was 30 F so the temperature at that location rose by 80 F in just five days. To put this into perspective, the largest temperature range ever recorded across the state of Iowa during the entire month of May is 88 degrees.
The professors’ statistical and historical knowledge is garbage, and yet they go to the press and claim that they have proved global warming.