USHCN 2.5 New Temperature Cheat

USHCN has been having to cheat harder and harder every month to create the false impression that the US is warming.

Index of /pub/data/ushcn/v2/monthly

They announced last week a new USHCN 2.5 version, which I predicted would introduce a new cheat.

USHCN deleted their monthly data last week, and apparently are making a transition from version 2.0 to 2.5. My guess about this surprise move is that they are going to make past “raw” data colder, and current “raw” data warmer. This will make their massive adjustments appear smaller.

It will be easy enough to test this, as I have local copies of their old raw data, and will be able to do a direct comparison.

My USHCN 2.5 Forecast | Real Science

They put the USHCN 2.5 data out yesterday, and cheated exactly as I expected – with recent raw temperatures bumped way up, and older temperatures lowered. This is calculated as the yearly average of all “raw average monthly” temperature data for all USHCN stations during all months. I assume a Monte Carlo distribution for missing data.

Index of /pub/data/ushcn/v2/monthly

Index of /pub/data/ushcn/v2.5/

But it is worse than it seems. There is an additional hidden cheat, because the monthly data is also adjusted upwards from the daily data – which shows a long-term cooling trend in the US.

Even after UHI effects, the US is cooling since 1895.

About stevengoddard

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31 Responses to USHCN 2.5 New Temperature Cheat

  1. Oh, I wouldn’t call it ‘final’.

    It’s a temporary final. Just when you think they’ve adjusted it all they can they come up with new and creative ways to add more warming. As long as dollar signs are involved those government data sets will NEVER be final.

  2. gator69 says:

    If a bank freely allows repeat robberies, and pays interest on stolen money, the stickups will continue.

  3. Bloke down the pub says:

    Perhaps they have discovered that the Earth is headed for an ice age and they are using this technique to hide it so that the plebs don’t get scared.

  4. Anthony Watts says:

    USHCN 2.5 is some sort of interim version. They went USHCN 1, then USHCN 2. Never was a 0.5 version in between any of those.

    I suspect USHCN 3 will be out just in time for the summer heatwave.

  5. Jimbo says:

    Warmists, pay heed.

    “An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it. Truth stands, even if there be no public support. It is self sustained.”
    Mahatma Gandhi

  6. Eric Barnes says:

    Thanks Steven. :)

  7. Dougmanxx says:

    In seventh grade chemistry class this was called “cheating”. As an adult it’s called: “fraud”. I guess this is what happens when “post-normal” science takes over: fit the data to the result.

  8. GW says:

    Steve,

    The “raw” data is the data as it is reported by the individual stations around the country, correct ? So they are applying their adjustments (v.2 or v.1, whatever) and then they are calling the adjusted numbers raw, as if they are unadjusted ? Then they are deleting the record of the original “raw” data ???

    GW

  9. Andy DC says:

    It’s too bad the Nationals could not have found a way to adjust yesterday’s raw data (final score) against the Cardinals.

  10. Eric Barnes says:

    Interesting that they are updating the files daily in v2 now, where they had been only updated monthly before.

  11. kirkmyers says:

    It’s clear that the climatastrologists, er, “scientists, at NOAA and NASA are engaging in fraud. Until they investigated and held to account, the flagrant lies, deceit and manipulation of scientific data will continue.

    At a bare minimum, the AGW ringleaders should be banned permanently from holding a government or university position. And those universities that are bankrolling the fraud with taxpayers’ dollars should be banned from receiving federal research grants.

  12. kbray in california says:

    Kudos for Steven Goddard over at Watts Up With That:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/13/ncdcs-new-ushcn-hockey-stick/

    This is worthy of a link on Drudge.

  13. Max Hugoson says:

    Steve:

    Your TOBS, Raw Monthly, Raw Daily…brilliant! When someone has done that sort of work, I am derth to complain. However, could I POLITELY ask for you to take the data, and add a 1, 2 and 3 Standard Deviation line to the data.

    As someone with an exceptionally strong SPC background, and an excellent Analog and DSP background, I tend to treat things such as this from a “systems” viewpoint. In the venacular of Stastical Process Control, I doubt if this would “be off the X-bar chart”, and this system would be considered “out of control”. (HA! How’s that for jargon?)

    The 1, 2 and 3 SD limits on the set would allow a quick assesment of this data in that mode.

    THANKS A MILLION!

    Yours,

    Max H.

  14. savebyj says:

    They must use the same people for the election polling.

  15. Latitude says:

    Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released… and here is the chart to prove it

    The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week.

    The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.

    This means that the ‘plateau’ or ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html#ixzz29ETlRbjO
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

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