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1947 Shock News : Arctic Warmed Ten Degrees In 50 Years – Massive Sea Level Rise Coming – International Agency Needed To Prevent Catastrophe
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Headlines from Doha COP 18 show that the permafrost bogeyman has been trotted out. Once again alarmists are in massive denial of the facts.
1) Permafrost has an active layer that can vary between two to three feet in a typical place like Barrow AK. That layer has melting and freezing every year.
The methane concentration have been flat in Barrow in recent decades.
2) Permafrost depletion in NH stopped in 2005.
Except for warming during the 1970s and 80s, northern Eurasian temperatures appear to have remained fairly stable. And of that warming, Frauenfeld and Zhang state that “the strong decrease in seasonal freeze depths during the 1970s to “1990s was likely the result of strong atmospheric forcing from the North Atlantic Oscillation during that time period.” Thus, their work provides little to no evidence for any significant warming of this massive portion of earth’s land mass over the past two decades, and absolutely no evidence for recent CO2-induced warming.” [Oliver W Frauenfeld, Tingjun Zhang 2011: Environmental Research Letters]
3) Researchers have discovered that when these melted areas are thawed, the explosion of new growth of vegetation becomes a positive CO2 sink that sequesters carbon dioxide in greater quantities than that released from the thaw. So instead of permafrost melting being a positive warming feedback, it actually becomes a negative feedback.
“northern peatlands can continue to serve as carbon sinks under a warmer and wetter climate, providing a negative feedback to climate warming,” which is the exact polar-opposite of what has historically been claimed by the world’s climate alarmists.” [Shanshan Cai, Zicheng Yu 2011: Quaternary Research]
4) Earlier warm periods, such as the Medieval and Holocene optimum, did not produce unusual amounts of CH4.
“There appear to be no significant CH4-excursions in ice core records of Antarctica or Greenland during these time periods which otherwise might serve as evidence for a massive release of methane into the atmosphere from degrading permafrost terrains.”
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2007/05/24/cooling-the-permafrost-scare/
Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings.
“and if …. ” .. and if monkeys could fly out my butt …
Again, aside from Greenland actually melting (which would take 1,000′s of years), who gives a rats rump if the Arctic melts? The ocean’s will NOT rise one stinking millimeter if all of the ice in the Arctic were to melt. Why oh why is simple first grader physics so difficult for people to comprehend?
When glacial ice melts, it does raise sea level.
Perhaps glacial melt may add additional H2O to the oceanic system, however, I suspect that would be offset by the reduction in volume of floating ice, hence, a net “no change”, or if there were a change, undetectable. Hell, there isn’t anyone on this planet right now that can tell for certain whether or not there is actually any sea level changes happening at all. The fact is, the northern hemisphere (aside from the Greenland interior) , possesses not enough frozen H2O to make any difference in sea level at all. Compared to what is stored in the southern hemisphere, the northern hemisphere is but an icecube in your drink!
Sea level has risen 120 metres in the last 15,000 years due to glacial melt.
Yes, it has, however, there isn’t much left melt. Is there some magical supply of additional water that I am missing here? What I am saying Steve, is absent the melt of Greenland, melting in the northern hemisphere will do little. Southern hemisphere, different story.
And even in the case of Greenland, the bulk of the ice is within the interior, which is a bowl. While some water would make it to the sea’s, the vast majority would likely remain trapped within the interior.
As has been pointed out here (many times by you as a matter of fact), Antarctica contains 70% of the worlds fresh water, and more than 90% of the worlds ice … http://www.gma.org/surfing/antarctica/antarctica.html
Squid:
There is still about 30 or so meters of sea level locked up in land ice in both hemispheres. Now whether there is a possibility of that melting sometime in the next ten thousand years is not know at this time. IF history repeats, which is most likely, 30 meters or so of additional sea level decline will occur in the next ten thousand years, as the globe heads toward the next Glacial Maximum in about 80 to 90 thousand years.
We had better hurry and get ready for that terrible even, because ten thousand years is just a blink of the eye in geological time.