It’s A Model, Stupid

David Appell has spammed about three dozen times

Where is the proof of your claim that guns “deter tens of millions of potential crimes every year?”

You obviously can’t count events that didn’t happen, but you can estimate. There are about 15,000,000 crimes reported in the US every year. My model very conservatively calculates that there would be twice as many without guns as a deterrent.

Appell’s belief system depends on models which are both unproven and discredited. What a clown.

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21 Responses to It’s A Model, Stupid

  1. Me says:

    That would be Assclown.

  2. Ivan says:

    Do you include in your model the millions of cash deliveries made (successfully) by armed guards – such as Brinks – every year?
    How many ATMs are replenished every year?
    How many parking meters are cleaned out every year ?
    How many ticketing machines are emptied each year ?
    All with armed guards.

  3. I think the point Appeal is making is similar to the argument that you can’t prove that arming the military with weapons is a deterrent because there is no way to prove which countries didn’t invade the US, or something.

    • Ivan says:

      Take the armed guards off the cash trucks and you’ll prove the point in about 24 hours – or less.

      • But since nobody would be stupid enough to do such a thing, you can’t actually *prove* this empirically can you?

        (In pseudo intellectual crank circles, this constitutes a ‘clever’ argument, apparently.)

  4. johnmcguire says:

    Appell has never coherently defended any aspect of cagw , neither has he ever coherently expressed any viable opinion on the subject of guns . He does regurgitate unfounded and biased statements and site studies that have been soundly rebutted . Oh , and he really likes models but can only get close to the computer ones . :-)

  5. gator69 says:

    Your model lacks postive feedback loops.

  6. Andy DC says:

    The only argument Appell and others of his ilk present is that Big Brother sasys it’s so, so it must be so. But they conveniently forget that Big Brother has a huge political and financial interest in what “he” is saying.

  7. kirkmyers says:

    In his bestselling book, “More Guns, Less Crime,” John R. Lott, Jr. has demonstrated conclusively that gun restrictions increase, rather than cut, the incidence of crime. But the anti-gun zealots are not interested in hard data and facts; they are driven by childish emotions, always attempting to blame an inanimate object for the actions of bad persons. There is no such thing as “gun crime.” There is only people crime.

    Gun restrictions and registration are the final steps towards to gun confiscation — every totalitarian government’s dream come true. Without the Second Amendment right to protect us from government tyranny, all the other amendments become meaningless.

  8. Sundance says:

    David wastes time with his faux compassion and misguided morality. By prentending that he cares, he establishes a false superior morality from which he can claim that others that are against further gun control don’t care about the dead children. This is common with emotionally driven people. People do care but it wouldn’t matter to David as you can’t PROVE to him that you do care and the only acceptable PROOF has been established in David’s emotional mind and that is that you agree with David. It is circular emotional irrationalism and thus we get the merry-go-round of David asking the same question 30 times.

    I followed Barak Obama for roughly a decade, and he did NOTHING to curb gun deaths in Cook County Illinois which was his back yard when he was a local politician. To see him now get up on the national stage and use the horror of dead kids as a background prop in order for him to push his political agenda, it becomes obvious to me that Obama is grandstanding and being a good little Saul Alinkskyite and not letting a good disaster go to waste. Emotional pandering and phoney morality are some of a politicians best tools and they are effective on emotional fools like David.

  9. leftinbrooklyn says:

    Whatever David has been smoking has been banned for decades. A ban that never once stopped him from smoking it.

    Some places are realizing this. The whole country realized it, even constitutionally, back in the Prohibition days. We may have to realize it again with guns.

    The liberal mindset must focus on the control of any alternate mindset. Or at least the delusion of control. Having speed limit signs every few blocks gives the delusion that no one speeds.

  10. Robertv says:

    “Americans provisionally delegated a limited amount of power over themselves to government, retaining their individual sovereignty in every respect and reserving to themselves the power not delegated to government, most importantly the right and power to abolish or replace any government that becomes destructive of the ends for which it was created. The Bill of Rights, especially the Second and Ninth Amendments, can only be properly understood and rightly interpreted in this context.”

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/lawrencehunter/2012/12/28/gun-control-tramples-on-the-certain-virtues-of-a-heavily-armed-citizenry/

    Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; like fire, a troublesome servant and a fearful master. The moment you give government dictatorial power it will use it . Just look what Obamba is doing all over the Globe . Dictators hate opposition .What stops him of doing the same thing at the home front ? Could it be guns in the hands of law-abiding people ? And yes sometimes accidents happen and innocent people die. You can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs. Individual sovereignty has a price sometimes a very high price.

  11. gator69 says:

    The man who coined the phrase “Killology”, Lt Col Dave Grossman, has quite alot to say about what is causing kids to go on massacres.

    From Wiki…

    “Grossman argues that the techniques used by armies to train soldiers to kill are mirrored in certain types of video games. The conclusion he draws is that playing violent video games, particularly light gun shooters of the first-person shooter-variety (where the player holds a weapon-like game controller), train children in the use of weapons and, more importantly, harden them emotionally to the task of murder by simulating the killing of hundreds or thousands of opponents in a single typical video game. Grossman uses blunt language that draws the ire of gamers – during the heights of video game controversy, he was interviewed on the content of his books, and repeatedly used the term “murder simulator” to describe first-person shooter games.”

    He is absolutely right. When we were kids, and our actions caused pain and/or suffering to another, play ended and punishment began. Video games and violent images now teach kids from day one, that there is gain from killing, and reward for hurting others. Most of us can handle this exposure without severe detrimental effects, just as many of us once slid around on a vinyl bench seat with no seat belt and lived to tell the tale. But there are those who cannot, those who have “accidents” of the mind, and they will react to stress in the manner in which they have been conditioned.

    http://www.killology.com/index.htm

  12. sunsettommy says:

    Mr. Appell is a classic leftist therefore has to run on emotional commentary that does not take in the whole picture surrounding these massacres because they not sane rational beings.

    He missed the fact that ALL of the shooters who caused these massacres were already either insane or drug addicts never has a NRA member been involved in such a tragedy but they are the very people under attack by leftists and the leftist media because they are cheap shot scumbags in their zeal to pass laws in their drive to increase their power base for further opportunities to exploit in the future.

    Leftists are low life scums who should be challenged everywhere they are found and they will in response show just how little they regard rational and factual conversation is in their view since they turn into emotional jelly slugs over children they would never really care otherwise.

  13. sunsettommy says:

    Some stuff leftists can learn factually and rationally and grow up with it:

    CA Gun Sales Skyrocket, Gun Injuries Plummet

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/01/04/CA-gun-sales-up-crime-down

    ===================================================================

    Mother Hiding with Kids Shoots Intruder

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/01/05/mother-hiding-with-kids-shoots-intruder

  14. sunsettommy says:

    Another one for leftist David Appell to learn and understand:

    Ex-Burglars Say Newspaper’s Gun Map Would’ve Made the Job Easier, Safer

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2013/01/04/ex-burglars-say-newspapers-gun-map-wouldve-made-job-easier-safer/

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