Hansen Forecast 0.6ºC Warming From 1997 To 2013

The world’s greatest climate scientist, forecast 0.6ºC warming from 1997 to 2013.ScreenHunter_629 Sep. 16 11.05

www.klimaskeptiker.info/download/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf

Instead, we got 0.00ºC warming.

ScreenHunter_630 Sep. 16 11.10

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

Hansen only missed by a factor of infinity. His spectacular incompetence makes him a hero and legend with progressives, Kook, Nuttercelli, Guardian, et. al.

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30 Responses to Hansen Forecast 0.6ºC Warming From 1997 To 2013

  1. matayaya says:

    You and I are past having any useful attempt at exchanging ideas. I could read your source and see the flaws in the premise that you don’t see, and I could send you sources showing the nuances of the story that led you to the wrong conclusion. But neither us respects the other at this point and it would be a waste of time.

    • Twilight Zone music ……

    • Latitude says:

      mares eat oats and does eat oats……..

    • gofer says:

      Aw, come on. Give it a shot, you might just hit on some valuable information that nobody can see but you. Don’t keep us in suspense.

    • stewart pid says:

      Rather than meaningless weasel words why don’t you actually tell us why Hansen’s spectacular miss is actually correct ;-)

    • Bill says:

      Actually, I know the whole story and you could only tweak it slightly. Scenario C is clearly not the correct one to use as this one said CO2 would stop growing. He still would be off by 0.4 to 0.5 C. And off by infinity if you look at the slope.

      • David says:

        Actually Bill, I think you will see that scenario B is a .6 increase. The Business as usual one I think. I think global emissions actually out ran B, but accumulation lagged. At any rate spectacularly wrong it is. Any attempt to defend it is inane.

    • gator69 says:

      “I could read your source and see the flaws in the premise…”

      But parrots cannot see flaws in AGW. How odd. :lol:

    • NikFromNYC says:

      Defense lawyer for CO₂: “If the data doesn’t fit, you must acquit!”

    • tom0mason says:

      The real undeniable fact is that Hansen theory is complete bunk. This is shown by the elementary observation that CO2 levels have continued to rise and in contrast to Hansen unfounded assertion, temperatures have not. Hansen’s theory is complete rot, has no basis in science.
      He (almost singlehandedly) has put back climate research in this country by decades, and ensured many, many $million were wasted on this hokum.

      Of course if you can show otherwise, please do.

      • F. Guimaraes says:

        How much of CO2 increase is due to oceans and how much is human (not Mann) made? I don’t know this…

        • tom0mason says:

          And volcanoes, deforestation, etc, etc…
          IPCC figures are total rot as they are grossly manipulated to exaggerate CO2’s effect.
          As ManicBeancounter puts it

          In the 2007 report was a table showing estimated radiative forcings in W m-2.
          I did some calculations.
          Net forcings are 1.60, of which solar irradiance is 0.12 or 7.5% of the net total. All the rest are human-caused (including land-use changes)
          The total of greenhouse gases are (including ozone) is 3.01, or 188% of the total.
          Aerosols total -1.20 or -75% of the total.

          The UNIPCC estimated that CO2, on its own, accounts for 104% of radiative forcings.

          from http://joannenova.com.au/2013/09/pr-wars-ipcc-fights-for-relevance-halves-warming-claims-to-be-95-certain-of-something-vaguer/#comment-1317769

        • F. Guimaraes says:

          Thanks Tom0mason, thanks for the link.
          I’m curious because of the lag between temperature and CO2 rise.
          I’ve read that it’s estimated to be of the order of many centuries for CO2 increase after temperatures, but we also have now this problem of atmospheric dryness, low cloudiness, possibly connected also with increased CO2 and I was wondering if these two phenomena in fact have a cyclical nature associate with long period solar cycles.
          We just had these strong solar cycles last century and now the CO2 reaching relatively high values for the Holocene and, if the two phenomena could be connected, the CO2 increase would lag behind temperatures by a few decades not centuries.

    • Even the activist Real Climate site gave up defending the Hansen forecast several years ago. Good to see yaya is confident to think he can set the deniers straight. Of course, over confidence and stupidity are sometimes highly correlated. ;-)

    • Gordon Levi says:

      It certainly would be a waste of time. Anybody who writes science blogs and believes that division by zero results in infinity is ineducable.

  2. gofer says:

    I actually saw somebody on J. Curry’s blog defending the BBC predicting Arctic ice would be gone by 2013. He emphasized that they said “could” be gone. So there you have it, the excuse for all failures. I’m sure Hansen had a hidden disclaimer in there somewhere. They dare not venture far from the land of “most likely”, which is near the islands of “likely”, “possibly”, “maybe” , “could”, “high confidence” and the biggest island, “SUGGESTS”.

    The data “suggests” there “could” be a “possibility” of a “likely” event in which we have “high confidence”. We are absolutely 100% “certain” that further research is essential.

    • Jimbo says:

      Here is Professor Maslowski said to the BBC.

      BBC – 12 December 2007
      “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.

      “So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
      http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm

      Here is Professor Peter Wadhams, an Arctic specialist at Cambridge University.

      Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
      “It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,” he said, pulling out a battered laptop to show a diagram explaining his calculations, which he calls “the Arctic death spiral”.
      http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/4084c8ee-fa36-11e2-98e0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2f8OoSN71

      Here is Wadhams the previous year.

      Guardian – 17 September 2012
      “This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates”.
      http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice

      • Jimbo says:

        As you can see Wadhams is quite clear. No “may”, “could” or “might” attached to his 2 emphatic conclusions. No room for maneuver for the good professor. He has dug himself into a hole and if he’s wrong he will be ridiculed mercilessly. :)

  3. tom0mason says:

    In 1988 when Dr. Hansen gave his testimony to congress he showed that he was not a scientist but a political activist. Since that day this political baloney of CO2 causing atmospheric warming has been propagated.

    • chris y says:

      Hansen was political long before 1988. He needed to be a sure thing for TimWirth and AlGore.

      In 1981, Hansen announced that global warming was dead certain beyond natural variations based on a 0.2C increase over 15 years, from 1965 to 1980. Ironically, post-hoc adjustments to the temperature data have almost completely erased the temperature rise Hansen used to justify his 1981 conclusion.

      In the meantime, 15 years of no temperature rise while CO2 annual emissions are 2.5 times higher than 1980, is simply brushed aside.

      I suspect the deeply ingrained activism had already overwhelmed Hansen’s common sense when he was monkeying around with atmospheric models of runaway Venus for Carl “choom” Sagan.

  4. joshuah says:

    If you look closely there’s a different shade around the line to indicate the level of uncertainty in the projection… oh nevermind, that’s the entire graph…

  5. stewart pid says:

    I wonder how much matayaya’s masters pay him to haunt this site and attempt to torment Steven and us?
    I wonder if he has learned anything while visiting here or if his mind is so made up that he won’t let himself get confused with the facts.

    • B.C. says:

      The latter. With rare exception, once the Stoopid Virus embedded itself into the soft mush residing between the ears of Glow Bull Wormers, it’s a chronic disease with little to no chance for the infected to recover through Clue Infusion Therapy. It’s sad and tragic, not only for the sufferers of Stoopiditis extremus, but for the rest of humanity, since we all suffer the consequences of the policy decisions implemented by those in power who are afflicted with the dreaded disease.

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