Everyone in the hurricane forecast business predicted a big season this year. NOAA reaffirmed their position this week, as reported on WUWT.
One of the main reasons cited for the forecasts was “record high Atlantic SSTs.” So let’s look at the SST anomalies in the region between the Cape Verde Islands and the US. That is the normal hurricane formation track.
SSTs have plummeted and are now not much above normal. Compare SST anomalies vs those in late May. The hurricane breeding ground has not kept it’s unusual warmth.
Has this affected hurricane formation? Circumstantial evidence says yes. Hurricane numbers are average , and ACE is well below average.
What do readers think?
- There will be big increase in the number of hurricanes over the next three weeks
- Another slow year
- 2010 forecasts were spot on
- A record high year
- NOAA does not understand understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the oceans to surface of the sun
- NOAA sees the world through red colored glasses
I think an average season by the NOAA standard, and a slightly lower than average season in reality. Reality to me is that the averager number of storms in the modern (read that technological) era is 14 named. I predicted 14-16 named storms this year, I think I was a tad high, but we have a ways yet to go.