Arctic Forecast Verification

My June forecast of 5.5 million km² (JAXA) is currently off by 7%.

My August forecast of 5.1 (JAXA) is currently right on the bullseye. I removed NSIDC because they don’t publish their daily numbers, so I can’t compare them against their measurement standard. Each ring represents 100,000 km² error.

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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10 Responses to Arctic Forecast Verification

  1. Peter Ellis says:

    You should probably remove Lindsay and Zhang as well, since their forecast is to be judged based on NSIDC numbers as well.

    • Right, but the NSIDC/JAXA measurement difference is relatively small compared to the L&Z error, and I made an approximate correction for it.

      • Peter Ellis says:

        If you’re able to correct for the NSIDC/JAXA difference, why aren’t you including the NSIDC predictions? *confused*

      • Peter Ellis says:

        Hold on, so to translate that into visual terms, you’re excluding the NSIDC figures because they’re too close to the centre of the bullseye (the prediction error is small) and only retaining the ones that are way off beam.

        Well, it’s nice of you to admit it so explicitly. I’m not sure it qualifies as science. Why not just ask NSIDC for their daily values?

      • Peter Ellis says:

        Moreover, even if you don’t want to ask for the NSIDC numbers, it would be at the very least honest of you to point out that both of their forecasts, like both of yours, were too high – even without exact numbers the NSIDC graph clearly shows that their figure is lower than the predicted 5 million.

      • Correct. Since I can’t tell whether theirs or mine is closer. When I have accurate numbers for NSIDC, I will publish them.

  2. Alexej Buergin says:

    How about adding the forecast by Stroeve/Meier (June, 5.5) and Meier/Stroeve (August, 5.0) to your graph?
    (It is the same group of people, of course).
    Who was copying whom? And how to determine who won?

  3. AndyW says:

    With the latest loss NSIDC’s 5.0 estimate for August is now closer than yours Steve it seems. My 4.9 guess from around May/June is looking better.


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