My friend Joe is claiming today that Arctic ice volume is at a record low. I challenge him to contact Julienne Stroeve at NSIDC, and get her opinion. Is 2010 Arctic ice volume really lower than 2008?
I just posted this on his site.
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
I’ll bet you censor this like my last post.
First, please contact Julienne Strove at NSIDC and ask her if ice volume is lower than 2008.
Second, here is my SEARCH submission.
1. Extent Projection
5.1 million km^2 based on JAXA. Reduced from initial June projection of 5.5 million
2. Methods / Techniques 3. Rationale
Statistical. In late May, I performed a numerical and visual comparison of the PIPS2 thickness distributions in the Arctic Basin for the last ten years vs. the current year – and found a closest match with 2006. I also calculated the ice volume by integrating the thickness across all pixels. It showed that 2010 should come in below 2006 and above 2009. Verification of previous years showed that this is a highly accurate forecasting technique, with the exception of 2007 – which was dominated by unusual winds which compacted and melted vulnerable areas of ice. Until mid-August this approach appeared to be working very accurately. Since then, strong southerly winds have developed and extent has dropped below predicted values. Thus the 8% reduction from the initial forecast.
4. Executive Summary
Our projection is based on comparing short term PIPS2 thickness forecasts with those of previous years. It was found that May 2006/ May 2010 made a close match of ice thickness distribution inside the Arctic Basin, though absolute 2010 extent/volume was lower. We now expect 2010 to finish the summer slightly below 2009.