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Since mid-August, southerly winds have been pushing the edge of the Arctic ice back towards the North Pole. This is very similar to the pattern from the last El Niño year of 2007.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
The graph below shows average ice thickness calculated from PIPS maps. As the ice has compressed towards the pole, the average thickness has increased, and is now the highest since 2007.
I wrote this in the June 6 Arctic Ice News, and that is exactly what has been happening.
Conclusion : Based on current ice thickness, we should expect September extent/area to come in near the top of the JAXA rankings (near 2003 and 2006.) However, unusual weather conditions like those from the summer of 2007 could dramatically change this.
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In 2007, much of the actual ice loss occurred during the following winter, when thick multi-year ice blew out into the North Atlantic and melted. Let’s see what this winter brings.
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