September 21, 2007 was the day the earth stood still. Seven billion people breathlessly awaited the end of the winds which were compacting the Arctic ice. Everyone understood how the edge of the Arctic ice pack directly affected their ability to catch seals.
Since the “change point” in 2007, September 21 Arctic ice (15% concentration) extent has been expanding at a linear rate of 247,875 km² / year. Using the standard climate science metric, that is a gain of 4,201 Manhattans per year.
Norsex shows 2010 about 15% greater than 2007.
30% concentration ice has been expanding even faster, and is now about 25% higher than 2007.
The real test of “recovery” though is how thick and how old the ice will be in spring of 2011. Unless we have very strong winds pushing the older ice out of the Arctic this winter (as happened during the winter of 2007-2008) we should expect to see a large increase in thickness and the amount of multi-year ice, relative to spring 2008.