NSIDC 5 Day Ice Growth

Areas in green show where the ice edge has grown since September 20. Areas in red show ice loss.

The next map shows areas of ice gain since the same date in 2007. Note that there is less “doomed” ice this year in the Greenland Sea. All ice in the Greenland Sea melts within a few months.

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

5 Responses to NSIDC 5 Day Ice Growth

  1. Nightvid Cole says:

    Good grief…in 2008 and 2009 you were trying to convince us that you correctly predicted a “recovery” of the ice. This year you predicted “continued recovery” with a minimum of 5.5 M km^2…and we got 4.8 M km^2 (according to JAXA). Time to ‘fess up. All this new stuff formed since the minimum, which you show on the top map in green, we have a name for. This name which will apply to this ice until September 2011, you are not going to like.

    First year ice!

    • My June estimate had 13% error. The PIOMAS June estimate had 17% error.

      • Nightvid Cole says:

        Uh, no, the June estimate of PIOMAS is represented by “Zhang” at
        http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2010/june

        It was 4.7 M km^2. This is only a 2% error, not 17%!

      • http://psc.apl.washington.edu/lindsay/September_ice_extent.html

        Lindsay, as in “Lindsay and Zhang”

        End of June: According to our model retrospective simulations, the ice in the Arctic has continued to thin at a remarkable rate. The statistical method based on the PIOMAS model analysis now is projecting a new record low ice extent. The best predictors are G1.0 (area withless than 1.0 m of ice) and G0.4 (area with less than 0.4 m of ice) which give nearly identical results. Using the same one as last month (G1.0) the predicted extent is 3.96 +/- 0.34 million square kilometers. The R2 value for this predictor is 0.84. which now indicates a high degree of skill in the forecast.

        End of July: Our prediction using model retrospective simulations from the month of July gives a forecast similar to last month’s: the best predictor is G0.4 (area with less than 0.4 m of ice) and the predicted extent is 3.7 +/- 0.3 million square kilometers. The R2 value for this predictor is still 0.84. Here is the diagnostic plot for this month:

    • Martian says:

      Quite a fast growth of first year ice.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s