Comparing Apples And Oranges

1933 was the second most active hurricane season on record. Five hurricanes struck the US, including three major hurricanes. From the graph above, one could be misled into believing that 2010 is comparable.

In fact, it has been about 750 days since any hurricane struck the US, and almost five years since a major hurricane arrived. So what’s up with the graph?

The map below shows the locations of these storms.

Many of these storms have been way out in the middle of the Atlantic – where they likely would not have been detected in 1933. Likewise, the peak intensity of the storms would have been recorded lower in the past. For example, hurricane Julia was a “major hurricane” for just a few hours. It is doubtful she would have been recorded as a major hurricane in 1933, and quite likely she would have been missed entirely. Lisa was barely a hurricane and far out in the ocean. Tropical storm Nicole was given a name, even though winds were tropical storm force for just a few minutes.

This is a clear case of technology bias, which plays right into alarmists hands. Look for Romm and crew to continue crowing about the “active hurricane season of 2010” – which was actually a total washout.

SST anomalies in the Gulf Of Mexico and Caribbean have dropped over the last 10 days.

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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1 Response to Comparing Apples And Oranges

  1. PJB says:

    Sadly, Katrina and Andrew were both local, rapid and destructive. They happened in analog years to 2010 as part of repeating (not related to [CO2]) climate cycles. It is still possible that a cyclone could develop in the Caribbean (the GoM is pretty much out of the picture as of now) and find its way to Florida. The later it gets, the less likely this is but just one major landfall would do it.

    ACE index allows for a better measure of activity than total storms or landfalls, per se, but we all know what matters to people. Facts and science will always beat their rhetoric and bombast.

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