Yes, Hansen actually made these forecasts (degrees C) in the year 1988. We should be baking already, and Manhattan should be drowning.
The standard response from our friends is that “well … ummm … we know a lot more now than we did 30 years ago.”
I agree, which is why we should be clever enough to realize that they will be saying the same thing five years from now about about 2010 forecasts.
So instead of making clueless forecasts about Arctic storm frequency in the year 2100, perhaps we should be having an honest discussion about the fundamental lack of skill in climate forecasting – and an honest discussion about the fact that all these climate forecasts being passed on to the press have no legitimate scientific basis.
Below are the “actual” (GISS adjusted) trends since 1988, with colour scales shifted to approximately match the forecast.
