In The Dark About Arctic Warming

Arctic winter temperatures have warmed over the last 30 years. People claim this  is due to the “greenhouse effect” – as shown above. The Sun shines through the atmosphere easily, but LW radiation has a more difficult time returning to space. As your Prius dumps more CO2 into the air, you literally fry Polar Bears in the blazing heat.

Makes perfect sense … as long as you don’t actually use your brain ….

The Sun doesn’t shine in the Arctic in winter. The Sun plays kind of an important role in the greenhouse effect.

So what is really happening up there in the frozen north?

http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ClimTrends/Change/graphics/temp_dep_49-08_F_sm.jpg

Temperatures in Alaska jumped up in 1978 by about three degrees and then flattened. Was this due to a sudden one-time increase in CO2? Probably not.

To see what really happened in 1977-78, I overlaid the Alaska temperature graph on the ENSO graph. The PDO shift of 1977 gave Alaska a one-time temperature boost

Conclusion : Arctic winter warming is obviously due to ENSO – not the greenhouse effect.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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11 Responses to In The Dark About Arctic Warming

  1. Seppie says:

    Steven,

    The ice was on 12 oktober 2005: [10,12,2005,6509531 km2]
    At 12 oktober 2010 it is: [10,12,2010,6664375 km2]
    http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

    On the site of Cryosphere you can see in the link that we are nowaday, anomaly 1.450.000 km2 below average.
    On 12 oktober 2005 we were 1.200.000 km2 below average.
    See link: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg

    If there is 155.000 km2 more ice on the 12th of oktober 2010 than in 2005, why is the anomaly 250.000 km2 more negativ than in 2005??

    Strange isn’t it?

    Seppie.

  2. M Carpenter says:

    Take a look at this satellite image! http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php

  3. Douglas DC says:

    Keep an eye on that Polar jet too….

  4. slimething says:

    SkepticalScience says you and others are misleading on the topic of Arctic temps.
    http://www.skepticalscience.com/DMI-cooling-Arctic-intermediate.htm

    • Julienne Stroeve says:

      thanks for the link to the article!

    • I never said that Arctic temps were decreasing. Obviously winter temperatures have been higher in recent years. In fact I pointed that out in this article.

      What I did say was that Arctic summer temps north of 80N have been below normal in recent years, and 2010 was the coldest.

      • Dikran Marsupial says:

        Perhaps you should post a response there and explain that they had misinterpreted your article (misinterpretations do happen – to err is human). It would be good if Julienne would contribute as well, it is great to see scientists actively working in the area contributing to the blogs.

      • Cook censors my comments on his site. Even if the article is about me. Why would he let me make a post?

      • The first sentence in this article is “Arctic winter temperatures have warmed over the last 30 years.”

        How dense can people be?

      • Dikran Marsupial says:

        As it happens, the skeptical science post doesn’t suggest you had claimed it is cooling in the Arctic, your post is only mentioned in passing, and is not the subject of the artcle:

        “This follows on from similar points made by Steve Goddard, and another article by Harold Ambler which tries to show how DMI is based on more data measurements than GISS, again providing a setting to raise questions about the reliability of GISS gridded values in the Arctic.”

        Which seems to me a reasonable summary of your WUWT article. The interpolation over the pole is indeed and interesting topic, and the inherent uncertainty is presumably why HADCRUT doesn’t do it.

        Skeptical Science has guidelines explaining moderator policy, if you stick to it you shouldn’t get your posts moderated. However, as I said above, having read the articles now, I don’t see how the article is misleading in regards to your WUWT post, so I think “slimething” has overstated it somewhat.

  5. slimething says:

    Steve,
    John Cook censors posts? Golly, no wonder it’s so squeaky clean. Note he lumps in three authors and then leaves the reader with impression he’s proved them all wrong.

    BTW, if John Cook is the author of that particular article, he needs to learn the difference between interpolation and extrapolation when he states:

    “Similar claims that the DMI data shows Arctic “cooling” or highlights problems with other temperature data sets (eg from GISS, which mostly interpolates over the Arctic ice) appear on other websites. It appears that such sites regard the DMI data as a standard.”

    It’s not difficult to fish out SkepticalScience’s BS, but Lubos Motls makes it so much easier
    http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/03/john-cook-skeptical-science.html

    Steve, have you considered incorporating CA-Assist into your blog?

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