There has been a lot of discussion overnight about the MWP meeting last month in Lisbon. The symposium web site has the graph below on their front page, which is a composite of temperature reconstructions and modeled temperatures.
I noticed that if you looked only at the temperature reconstructions, there is a Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and no hockey stick.
Below is the IPCC’s hockey stick overlaid and normalised for the baseline, with “Mike’s nature trick” removed.
What becomes clear is that the warming since 1800 is nothing unusual and is nearly identical to the warming prior to the year 1000.
I don’t understand how any scientist could look at this data objectively and see a hockey stick. It just isn’t there.
Below are versions of the graph with progressively higher overlap thresholds – 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%. Regardless of confidence interval chosen, there is no hockey stick.