Duke Study Fail : “Variable southeast summer rainfall linked to climate change”

The study claims that southeast US summer precipitation has become more erratic due to “climate change” since 1948. That is an easy one to test. Duke’s local USHCN station is at Chapel Hill.

Prior to 1948 the standard deviation of June-August precipitation was 4.9 inches. Since 1948 it has been 3.6 inches. Their theory falls flat on its face. And the wettest year and the driest year were both prior to 1948.

Duke has three strikes so far. But the real problem is their choice of 1948 as the start date of the study. The first couple of decades after 1948 had low variability, as you can see in the graph. Did they cherry pick the start date, or did they just get really unlucky?

Whatever the cause, their claim fails. Summer precipitation was more variable from 1895-1948 than it has been since. Why wasn’t this caught in peer-review? It took me five minutes to see the problem.

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About stevengoddard

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21 Responses to Duke Study Fail : “Variable southeast summer rainfall linked to climate change”

  1. pyromancer76 says:

    Must be because there are no real scientists involved in their peer review, just sycophants — where are their grants coming from? Sorry to be so cruel in my comments, but this fraudulent drumbeat gets so tiresome. Thanks for your continued efforts to expose the scientific frauds — and for your own scientific research with integrity.

  2. suyts says:

    Yep, I’d say the climate changed from about 1965-1978. We should run around, flail, and scream OMG!!! OMG!!! OMG!!! We’re all gonna die!!!!

    Oh, wait, that happened back when I was a young person. We seemed to get through it just fine. In fact, I lived in Georgia during part of that time period. Unbelievable how I managed to get through the hard times!

  3. MikeTheDenier says:

    I’m from the Research Triangle Area of NC (Raleigh, Durham Chapel Hell) and I can say without any doubt this place is infested with communists, progressives, and really stupid libtards that will do anything in their power to advance the progressive/socialist agenda. They will lie, steal, and cheat their way to the ends they see fit with no regard for truth or integrity.

  4. Mike Davis says:

    The first tip off was when they re-named the Bermuda High the NASH. This way they could say that the only evidence for changes to this “NEW” event could be AGW.
    I guess they forgot to read about past research that showed this has been changing / shifting position as long as it has existed just like all other Ocean Atmosphere weather patterns.

    For those others that are not familiar with NASH= North Atlantic Subtropical High!
    I think the best correlation to these changes over the last 50 years the the increase in computer usage at the universities in the south east where they are studying this problem.
    Just think: If they were not researching the problem of AGW, AGW would not exist and all we would know was that climate is still changing just as it always has.

    I agree that AGW is real and the researchers are the primary cause because it did not exist before it was invented as a research project.

  5. MikeTheDenier says:

    Forget Climate Disruption. That’s so 2009. The NEW scam is………

    Global extinction crisis looms, new study says

    Environmental groups are pushing for a goal of protecting 25 percent of all land on earth and 15 percent of the sea by 2020. At the moment, roughly 14 percent of terrestrial areas and less than 1 percent of the ocean enjoy some degree of environmental safeguards.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/26/AR2010102607146.html?hpid=topnews

  6. MikeTheDenier says:

    Just a reminder ..

    A Time for Choosing

  7. Paul H says:

    Why let facts get in the way of a good story?

  8. Philip Finck says:

    So, one needs the precipitation data for the stations they used in the study. Do a departure from the mean …..etc ….add it all up and get `one of those plots’ and then do the standard dev., etc stuff.

    Whoops, got to go to work to earn some money for buying precious metals for when the food and firewood riots begin …. you know…we are all going to cook/freeze/drown/desacate(sp) to death.

  9. Lazarus says:

    More erratic doesn’t mean more or less rain.

    Why not test the claims of the study instead of the straw man you have invented about what the study should be about? In fact it surprises me that it took you as long as five minutes to see the problem you invented yourself.

    The study is about intensification of the summertime North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH), or “Bermuda High.
    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI3829.1?journalCode=clim

    • Measured precipitation data is a straw man?

      • Lazarus says:

        Are you seriously saying you have refuted a peer reviewed study that looked at the North Atlantic Subtropical High and its impact on summer precipitation over the Southeast United States using the 850hPa geopotential height field in the NCEP, ERA-40 reanalysis, long-term rainfall data and IPCC AR4 model simulations during the past six decades (1948ā€“2007) by posting some of Chapel Hill’s summer rain fall record?

        What is even more worrying is that there actually seems to be people posting on here that gullibility accept that you have.

      • Lazarus says:

        “Precipitation variability prior to 1948 was at least as high as after 1948.”

        Perhaps, but that is not what this research is about. It’s about the North Atlantic subtropical high, which is not the same thing no mater how much you need it to be for your straw man.

        From the paper;
        “Our results show that the NASH in the last 30 years has become more intense and its western ridge has displaced westward with an enhanced meridional movement compared to the previous 30 years. When the NASH moved closer to the continental US in the most recent 3 decades, the effect of the NASH on the interannual variation of SE US precipitation is enhanced through the ridge’s north-south movement.”

        Are you seriously saying the rain fall record from Duke disproves that?

      • Mike Davis says:

        L:
        I say the paper DMS! DONT MEAN S###! The AMO which this NASH is a minor display of has been shown to cycle with a periodicity of 40 to 80 years with an average age of 60 years, just like all the rest of the long term ocean atmosphere weather patterns. Taking half or less of a long term pattern to make any claim is BS!

      • Mike Davis says:

        Regarding Chapel Hill. It is south of I 40 and East of the Appalachian Mountain Range so it would be effected by any major change in the NASH. If there was any impact it would be observed in the records from Chapel Hill. The paper is refuted!

  10. Mike Davis says:

    Lazarus:
    The study was about “Changes” in the NASH over a short period of time!
    Steven:
    Real facts are all “Straw men” when fantasy is being promoted! Donchaknow?

  11. Mike Davis says:

    I left out part of the study: It was about changes in the NASH and how it affected “Precipitation” in the South East US.

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