Response To “Hot Topic”

I wrote an article for SPPI a couple of weeks ago titled “To a Geologist, “The Past is Key to the Future.” I got some good feedback from it, none more flattering than being compared to Lord Monckton by Hot Topic NZ

Unfortunately, they got a few other things wrong.

Point 1. Antarctic sea ice has been increasing steadily through the satellite record. No one disputes this.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/s_plot_hires.png

Point 2. Greenland is not as warm as it was 70 years ago. Dr. Walt Meier at NSIDC said this :

The current Greenland warming, while not yet quite matching the temperatures of 70 years ago, is part of a global warming signal that for the foreseeable future will continue to increase temperatures (with of course occasional short-term fluctuations), in Greenland and around the world.

Hot Topic cited some above normal temperatures earlier in the year, and ignored the long term trend. They ignored the fact that there are only a very small number of stations with contiguous records going back 100 years. They ignored the map I included showing the regions of GISS cooling (turquoise) over the last 70 years.

When cherry picking the 2010 temperature dates they were willing to look at, they ignored the fact that Greenland is having extremely cold weather this autumn. Temperatures close to 70 below zero on the ice sheet already this October, and are forecast to remain that way for weeks. They also ignored the fact that Greenland has been on a cooling trend since 2007.

http://www.wunderground.com/

Point 3. There is no question that the satellite record coincides with the warm phase of the PDO. Ridiculous of them to dispute this well known fact.

Point 4. They offered no evidence tying the current Arctic warming to CO2. If it is due to CO2, why is it colder now over most of the Arctic than it was 70 years ago?

It is difficult to argue against ad homs, but easy to discuss the science.


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About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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40 Responses to Response To “Hot Topic”

  1. PJB says:

    Turgid? Brobdignagian perhaps.

    The only thing that is swelling is the number of people who are wise to the climate disruption version of CAGW.

  2. Mike Davis says:

    Steven:
    You must have gotten it right if you got that response.
    Just think you have been assigned an entire flock of Believers to proselytize those who read your site to turn to the ONE true faith for redemption!
    Brother Al has spoken through the faithful!

  3. dorlomin says:

    So Steve where did you get your Ph.D in geology and what have you published as a geologist. I have had a look and not found anything I am keen to see the rest of your work.

    • I don’t have a Ph D in geology. That is my undergraduate degree.

      Some day I will give a bio, and you will probably wish at that point that I hadn’t. Be careful what you ask for.

    • Jimbo says:

      Are you the same dorlomin who is a regular Warmist at the Guardian CiF section who rants and raves that sceptics are just deniers? It’s good to see you are not actually tackling the claims of Mr. Goddard or the links I have posted. Read and ye shall learn. We may actually convert you one day.

  4. Mike Davis says:

    Steven:
    My job,before I retired, Was to tell the Experts that they were wrong. I met a lot of people over the years with “Skins” “Parchments” and whatever letters behind their names. People need to be judged by their contributions, not their so called “Authority”.
    I found geology fascinating when I studied it almost 45 years ago and I still pick up or read a geology article from time to time.
    Most of what I see published recently is rehashes of previous work with little new added.

    • Many companies hire gobs of verification people who’s sole purpose is to find product defects. Sadly, academia has no parallel and as a result turns out broken products nearly continuously.

  5. Steve L says:

    Why are you confounding PDO with ENSO?
    Also, one website I looked at said that a phase of the PDO can last up to 30 years. How long until your hypothesis that Arctic ice is responding to that can be properly tested?

  6. Amino Acids in Meteorites says:

    stream of climate denier……

    What’s a ‘climate denier’? Someone that denies there’s a climate?

  7. Nicely said, Steven. Everything Gareth Renowden said was wrong, but the fact that he gives no link between Arctic warming and human CO2 is significant.

    Once again he seems strong on colourful language but weak on science — what a coincidence that it’s just what he accuses Christopher Monckton of. It’s hard to believe that this man is favoured as an informal mouthpiece by NIWA, New Zealand’s premier climate science institute.

    Cheers.

    • CTG says:

      Ah yes, Treadgold. The man who thinks he can sue the atmosphere for being too hot. A good bedfellow for Goddard, the man who would prefer to count pixels than look at real data.

      • Bob D says:

        CTG:

        The man who thinks he can sue the atmosphere for being too hot.

        Hmm, as far as I understand it, it’s not that the atmosphere is too hot at all. In fact, it’s precisely because the atmosphere isn’t too hot that NIWA has been forced to make the past cold.

      • sunsettommy says:

        LOL,

        Did you miss the massive downturn in temperature recently?

        The one where all those awesome warm forcing powers of CO2 is once again overrun by a natural cycle of temperature change.

        Gosh darn,why are those dream heater molecules being so disrespected over and over again?

        He he…

  8. Richard C (NZ) says:

    “It is difficult to argue against ad homs, but easy to discuss the science.”

    More a comprehensive and substantiated smack-down than a discussion from my reading – but I’m not arguing.

  9. Thrasher says:

    The arctic is warming regardless of the PDO cycle. The biggest problem with the alarmist view is that they only cherry pick the +PDO phase to show the warming which makes it look much more robust than is actually happening.

  10. LetsGoViking says:

    Steven,
    I’m jealous! 🙂 Great article.
    Thanks for the information!

  11. T G Watkins says:

    Most of us ‘love’ you Steven. Quite encouraging that you are taking some flak.Your fame is spreading and obviously worries some.
    In my own field, anaesthesiology often the most highly qualified on paper are the last ones to trust your life to; same applies to surgeons, although of course there are exceptions.
    I would love to read your c.v.

  12. Gneiss says:

    T G Watkins writes,
    “I would love to read your c.v.”

    So would I. But I don’t think we will.

  13. nofreewind says:

    Steven, when you first left WUWT i thought that was a dumb move because of all the coverage you were getting. Now I take that back, you are doing a tremendous job and are completely worthy of your own space!! Keep pushing out the SCIENCE and the TRUTH.

  14. Steve (Paris) says:

    I don’t thing Steven ‘left’ WUWT. I think like all things nurtured by CO² he grew. And he keeps in regular touch with the chief gardener at WUWT juding by his frequent posts ‘over there’.

  15. Jimbo says:

    1937
    “Particulars are given regarding the big rise of winter temperatures in Greenland and its more oceanic climate during the last fifteen years.”

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49706327108/abstract
    and

    “…the rate of warming in 1920–1930 was about 50% higher than that in 1995–2005.”
    http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL026510.shtml

    Co2 anyone?

  16. Jimbo says:

    Science 23 January 2009:
    Vol. 323. no. 5913, p. 458
    FALL MEETING OF THE AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION:
    Galloping Glaciers of Greenland Have Reined Themselves In
    Richard A. Kerr

    Ice loss in Greenland has had some climatologists speculating that global warming might have brought on a scary new regime of wildly heightened ice loss and an ever-faster rise in sea level. But glaciologists reported at the American Geophysical Union meeting that Greenland ice’s Armageddon has come to an end.
    http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/323/5913/458a

    Boy the carbon markets are already kicking in!

  17. Denis Ables says:

    I’m amazed that anyone can claim that Monckton doesn’t argue the science. They must be turning off during his preliminaries. He gives not only the science, but also the background – the folks who established the IPCC, their agendas well known then, etc.

    There’s a video out by him “Apocalypse ? NO ” that should not be missed.

    I’m not why folks even argue about the relatively brief weather/climate cycles. I don’t think it’s necessary to recognize that there is no significant warming being caused by Co2. Not only that, the only rationale for sea level increases, ice packs shrinking, etc., is related to their global warming claim – and not to Co2. These name changes to “climate change” and now to “climate disruption” are the alarmists’ response because they can’t argue the science.

    Neither my (formal) education nor my many years of job experience have anything to do with climatology, but this stuff doesn’t take rocket science. A google doc, a “climate tutorial” can be accessed at:

    https://docs.google.com/View?id=ddrj9jjs_0fsv8n9gw

    Constructive feedback is welcome.

  18. Anthony Watts says:

    I wouldn’t worry too much about Gareth the truffle farmer. He’s pretty much inconsequential. WUWT smokes him in his own country of New Zealand. He’s got no traffic.

    You’ve only had a blog for a couple of months and even you are beating the pants off him, though technically I’m not sure he wears pants.

    http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/stevengoddard.wordpress.com+hot-topic.co.nz

    I stopped paying attention too him when he took the thumbs down “dislike” button off his web page (the thumbs up “like” remained though) when he got some traffic from WUWT. After I called him out on it rather than restore it, he took both off. Heh.

    Anybody who is so intolerant of criticism that they have to bastardize their own website feature isn’t worth paying attention to. Your best strategy is to ignore him unless he writes something libelous.

  19. dapster says:

    Truffles? Kinder?

    “Don’t wrestle with a pig. You get dirty and besides the pig likes it”
    Straight from the gob of the King of All Misanthropes, not surprised to see his lackeys still clinging.

    Thanks to Mssr’s. Goddard and Watts for their work against such. We are winning, Gentlemen, Throttle Up.

  20. Pefmeespapgal says:

    Kim Kardashian can now be on the road to divorce, but does not forget his humble roots …
    Way back in 2003, before she was famous, she was just another girl on the party scene in LA, and best friends with Paris Hilton. She was dating a rapper named Ray J at the time and the two headed off for Mexico and filmed what would become one of the most downloaded videos the internet has ever seen.
    Dubbed Kim K Superstar, the 39 minute DVD was released in 2007 after Porn purveyor Vivid bought the rights and settled with Kardashian for $5 million dollars and immediately began selling the footage. The DVD sold over 1 million copies.
    scroll for new preview from video
    Now, in a new twist, Vivid has released all of their Kim K sex tape footage… and it’s even more uncensored and longer than we imagined.
    [i]Dubbed “Kim K Superstar, Part 2” the full online version is over 1 hour 40 minutes long. [/i]
    Kim Kardashian is at the center of a messy Twitter lawsuit involving Dr Siegal’ s Cookie Diet. It all started when Kardashian recently fired off a

    Questions: Where can I watch it for free?
    This is pretty much the only question I get so I’m just going to answer it quickly. A lot of people have been getting burned on non-official websites that try to install so called “codecs” to watch the video. Any site that asks you to download any kind of computer program before you can play the video is actually trying to get you to install a virus. Sounds fun. Now, if you’re too poor to afford to watch it online, god help you. Just pray you won’t get a virus.

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