Clouds are the key variable. When the sun shines on the ocean at a low angle of incidence, SW radiation enters the water and heats it. When it is cloudy, less heat enters the water.
So a critical factor in predicting changes to ocean heat content is being able to forecast clouds. If you can’t model clouds accurately, you can’t forecast changes in ocean heat content. If you can’t forecast changes in ocean heat content, you can’t forecast changes in climate. Period.
Climate models don’t model clouds accurately.
Some confirming work for Henrik Svensmark’s cosmic ray/cloud cover theory:
Roy Spencer may see promise in it:
Piers Corbyn may not:
I do not see it as a contribution to Svensmark’s work. I took away the impression they thought it could be seen in short term weather but not long term.
I think they are running down a blind alley as they are relying on questionable records as proof of their so called theory. With the proper tweaking any answer can be found.
The the movement of the earth through spiral arms of the galaxy lines up well with the time of ice ages.
“Climate models don’t model clouds accurately.”
So I think you’re trying to say they are not trustworthy.
Sunlight can penetrate water much, much deeper than LW radiation.
Cloud formation not only leads to sunlight being reflected back to outer space but it also facilitates a faster hydrologic cycle. The faster the hydrologic cycle, the faster some of the energy released from condensation can escape to outer space (thus cooling the earth).
Info on clouds, modeling and feedback: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/Clouds.htm