“My position is the mainstream one, backed up by decades of research,” Dessler wrote on the blog. “This mainstream theory is quite successful at simulating almost all of the aspects of ENSO.
Complete nonsense. Last year at this time, none of the models forecast a La Niña in 2010. Instead, we are having the strongest La Niña on record. They can’t forecast ENSO for six months, much less for 100 years.
The graph below overlays actual in black vs. forecasts.