Global Warming To Make The Baltic Sea Ice Free

Two years ago, 80 scientists warned of warm, ice free winters in Northern Europe.

Climate change in the Baltic Sea basin — past, present and future

Scientists at GKSS have coordinated a regional climate survey, whose results are being presented today as a published book

Titled Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin (BACC), the book published by Springer-Verlag presents the first comprehensive survey of past and possible future climate change in the region, which extends over 13 countries around the Baltic Sea in northern and mid-Europe. One of the key findings is that air temperatures in the Baltic Sea basin could rise by up to five degrees Celsius from now to 2100. More than 80 scientists from 13 European countries were involved in this interdisciplinary project, which has been coordinated by the GKSS Research Centre in Geesthacht, Germany. “BACC is a regional assessment comparable to the IPCC report on global climate change,” says the coordinator of the project, Professor Hans von Storch, who heads the Institute for Coastal Research at GKSS.

Warming is already under way

The scientists conclude that air temperatures in the Baltic Sea basin have already risen over the past century, increasing by approximately 1°C in the northern areas of the Baltic Sea basin and by around 0.7 °C in the southern areas. Consequently, the warming is larger than the global mean temperature increase of 0.75 °C reported by the IPCC.

Scenarios for the end of this century

Meteorologists, hydrologists, biologists and oceanographers worked together to establish scenarios of climate development in the Baltic Sea basin for the period up to 2100. The results also include the possible impact of climate change on terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems.

If adequate climate mitigation measures are not put in place by the global community, air temperatures could rise by 4-6 °C in northern areas such as Sweden, Finland and Western Russia, or by 3-5 °C in the southern areas such as Poland and Northern Germany. Water surface temperature in the Baltic Sea could increase by 2-4 °C. Higher water temperatures and decreased salinity would have a great impact on the Baltic Sea’s flora and fauna, affecting the entire ecosystem from bacteria and plankton all the way to commercially important fish species such as cod. Ecosystems on land – including managed forests – could benefit from an extended growing season, but may also become increasingly vulnerable to damage by insect and fungal pests as well as other stresses.

A milder climate could reduce the ice cover in the Baltic Sea by 50 to 80 %. While ice-free conditions would be beneficial for shipping in the Baltic Sea, they would threaten populations of animals such as the Baltic ringed seal, an endemic species that is dependent on ice surfaces in order to reproduce.

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12 Responses to Global Warming To Make The Baltic Sea Ice Free

  1. Meteorologists, hydrologists, biologists and oceanographers worked together to establish scenarios of climate development in the Baltic Sea basin for the period up to 2100.

    Ya but, can they tell me what the weather will be next Friday?

    I didn’t see the article mention how much their ‘global warming’ grant money is……..

  2. The scientists conclude that air temperatures in the Baltic Sea basin have already risen over the past century….

    Ya but, the earth was emerging from the Little Ice Age. I wonder if they get concerned over the Baltic warming after emerging from winter into summer every year? Probably not, there’s no money in it.

  3. et says:

    You cant play same card in regional climate as in global warming. The case with baltic region – everybody would be happier if it would be a bit warmer 🙂

  4. Jimbo says:

    26 December, 2010
    Britain woke to the coldest-ever Christmas Day as temperatures plummeted to -18C in parts of the country… and today could be just as cold.”

  5. Jimbo says:

    The Met Office has recently been denying that it forecast a mild winter. Fine! Now take a look at the Quarmby Review.

    “The essence of their message was that they had consulted the Met Office, which advised them that, despite two harsh winters in succession, these were “random events”, the chances of which, after our long previous run of mild winters, were only 20 to one. Similarly, they were told in the summer, the odds against a third such winter were still only 20 to one. ”

  6. Jimbo says:

    Here is indeed the Met Office forecast in October a milder winter than the UK got.

    “The latest data comes in the form of a December to February temperature map on the Met Office’s website.

    The eastern half of England, Cornwall, Scotland and Northern Ireland is in for temperatures above the 3.7C (38.6F) average, more than 2C warmer than last winter.

    The map also shows a 40 per cent to 60 per cent probability that western England and Wales will be warmer than 3.7C (38.6F), with a much smaller chance of average or below-average temperatures.”

    Thank God the internet has a memory.

  7. Perry says:

    Oh Yes.

    T Boone Pickens to T Bone Pickens to Slim Pickens.

    WUWT. … more-30216

    “In 2008, billionaire T. Boone Pickens unveiled his ‘Pickens Plan’ on national TV, which calls for America to end its dependence on foreign oil by increasing use of wind power and natural gas. Over the next two years, he spent $80 million on TV commercials and $2 billion on General Electric wind turbines.

    Unfortunately market forces were not favorable to Mr. Pickens, and in December 2010 he announced that he is getting out of the wind power business. What does he plan to do with his $2 billion worth of idle wind turbines? He is trying to sell them to Canada, because of Canadian law that mandates consumers to buy more renewable electricity regardless of cost.

    On his website he says this about 2011-

    We’re not going away. If I’ve learned anything during the many years of my business career it is this: No one has ever accomplished his or her goal by quitting or failing to meet and overcome a challenge. You reach your goal by hitching up your pants and wading back into the fight.

    That’s what I’m going to do in 2011. And I know you’ll be with me.”

    Not a chance buddy boy. You’re a dead man walking

  8. Andy Weiss says:

    I was recently at a social gathering and someone asked me what I thought about global warming. I said “Look at all the cold weather around the world. Do you think there is significant global warming?” Then people chipped in with the usual media fed crock, that global warming causes more extremes.

    I told them the worst hurricane was 75 years ago, worst tornado 85 years ago, etc.
    I don’t think they listened to a word I said.

  9. Andy Weiss says:

    I recently read that the Baltic Sea has not warmed a bit over the last 100 years. I would think right now the water is probably a bit nippy!

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