Climate Models Have No Skill At Forecasting The Climate

Obama administration policy is based on climate models which have less accuracy than a Ouija board.

This is what they predicted :

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/long_lead/gifs/2010/201001temp.gif

This is what we are getting. The exact opposite.

 

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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9 Responses to Climate Models Have No Skill At Forecasting The Climate

  1. Andy Weiss says:

    Yes, New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma had no winter at all this year!

  2. Bruce says:

    Reality is embarassing like that. I mention this to my clients when I deliver them a process model. Building models is easy, validation is slightly harder.

    But the graphics are pretty.

  3. Sean says:

    Do you know if they used GCM’s or a different method for their seasonal climate predictions? If they did not use GCM’s, then they are using meterological models rather than climate models. In either case, I agree, no skill is displayed.

    • Climate models have weather models at their core. They run them with coarser time and spatial granularity, and add more parameters for things which change over time. Neither is very accurate beyond about 72 hours.

  4. Anything is possible says:

    I have Ryan’s charts bookmarked, so Ill post them on his behalf as I’m sure he has better things to do (:-

    http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfs/current/raw_temp_c.html#picture

    This one gives a running log of temperature anomalies over the last 2 years :

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