IPCC Forecast “Milder Winters”

9.4.1. Heat Waves

Global climate change is likely to be accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves, as well as warmer summers and milder winters

9.4.2. Decreased Mortality Resulting from Milder Winters

In many temperate countries, there is clear seasonal variation in mortality (Sakamoto-Momiyama, 1977; Khaw, 1995; Laake and Sverre, 1996); death rates during the winter season are 10-25% higher than those in the summer. Several studies indicate that decreases in winter mortality may be greater than increases in summer mortality under climate change (Langford and Bentham, 1995; Martens, 1997; Guest et al., 1999). One study estimates a decrease in annual cold-related deaths of 20,000 in the UK by the 2050s (a reduction of 25%)

http://observatory.ph/resources/IPCC/TAR/wg2/353.htm Mild winters (Europe)

Milder winters exert a major impact on the natural environment. Overwintering of species is more successful. However, failure to kill off pests and diseases that prey on wildlife, as well as failure to cull weaker members of the species—which then compete for food in the following springs and summers—in the end may be counterproductive. Cannell and Pitcairn (1993) show that during two mild winters in the UK,




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4 Responses to IPCC Forecast “Milder Winters”

  1. ……Several studies indicate that decreases in winter mortality may be greater than increases in summer mortality under climate change……

    The IPCC is all about scaring people.

    • Latitude says:

      you know what’s so funny about that?

      You can find ‘several studies’ that say the total opposite of each other

      • suyts says:

        No doubt, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/endangerment/comments/volume5.html

        There you go, I can only read so much of it at a time.

        Comment (5-4):
        A commenter (1468) states that if increased concentrations of the minor greenhouse gases (GHGs) including CO2 have any significant warming effect (which is highly debatable), they could conceivably contribute to a warmer world that would be more propitious for human beings.

        Response (5-4):
        EPA disagrees with the commenter’s assertion that the scientific literature does not suggest that increased concentrations of GHGs such as CO2 affect temperatures. See Volume 3 of the Response to Comments document, “Attribution of Observed Climate Change,” for responses to comments on the attribution of climate warming.

        With respect to the commenter’s general assertion that a warmer world would be better for human beings, we note that many commenters provided specific comments on this issue. See responses to other comments in this volume regarding the health impacts associated with a warmer world.

      • suyts says:

        Anyway, basically, our EPA says a warmer world is more deadly than a colder world…….. even though they quote the IPCC on their general findings that CO2 is a pollutant.

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