Important Point From Roy Spencer

if the satellite warming trends since 1979 are correct, then surface warming during the same time should be significantly less, because moist convection amplifies the warming with height.

This is a key point which is normally ignored by alarmists. GISS proponents often claim that they correlate well with UAH (which they might have done until ten years ago) but as Dr. Spencer points out, GISS shouldn’t be matching satellite data. It should be a lesser slope.

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30 Responses to Important Point From Roy Spencer

  1. which they might have done until ten years ago

    From what I’ve seen the GISS divergence from UAH started around 1998. I could even argue that the change started in 1988. But that change is subtle. The change starting at 1998 stands out like a sore thumb.

    Why do I say that?

    part 1

  2. Mike Davis says:

    BUT! BUT! BUT! I mean what does he know? He is just an atmospheric scientist that spends his working time studying Global Temperature anomalies as reported by the satellites for the last 31 years. Do you really believe that gives him the right to form an opinion about Global Climate or temperature trends?
    I DO!!!!

    • Vlasta says:

      Nice statment . I heave read Dr R Spencer posts past 2 years . Can you please post the date he made the above statment ?
      Iam pretty sure he is on something how to spoil J Hansens retirment , but not with ” surface temps should be lower”
      I have no doubt what so ever , that GISS and CRU , followed UHA temps and took it as a benchmark for the past 31 years and adjusted them accordingly
      Dr R Spencer is onto something . Almost the same time he did seasonal adjusments and changed the base period , so GISS and CRU cant follow UHA .
      No we reach why iam posting this .
      In the past GISS and CRU were like 0.1-0.2 higher than 600mb , as one would expect .
      REmove seasonal adjusments and new base period , and JAN UHA should be +0.25 . Than how come CRU posted +0.194 ? Because +0.4 would look a joke .
      This NINA is 6 monts behind 2008 . FEB should be -0.2 and I predict MAR about the same . A record low anomaly .

  3. suyts says:

    It’s amazing how warmistas will errantly quote UAH, but in the same breath sneer at Spencer. I think it has been demonstrated that GISS is an outlier. Yet, 2010 gets pronounced as the “hottest year evuh”.

  4. vlasta says:

    HI Steven
    Can you please email me why you deleted my post ?
    Maybe cos R Spancer never said , what you claim he did ?
    Really feel sorry for you , as I was loughing my arse off about your prediction about last year minimum arctic ice extend . I did beat you , but just .

    Or maybe you have no idea what I mean in my post ?

    I agree with that

  5. AndyW says:

    Why do they measure X thousand feet up then if it is not correlated with where us poor humans live, the majority near 0 feet sea level?

    Roy goes on about Chan 5 but it is not near sea level?


    PS He still can’t describe why the lag between his level cooling down and El Nina cooling the surface level, as he expressed it a surprise it took so long to affect it. So why is UAH promoting that level as the best?

  6. AndyW says:

    There needs to be a correlation between how SST’s dived on the current El Nina and the temps this sat takes it’s remote sensing at. This seems yet another great unknown to be thrown into the mix!

    Note I am not a critic of this data, I think it is one of the best. I am just pondering on the unknown factor.


    • Mike Davis says:

      Try LA NINA! Think of the cooling at Nino 3.4 region as the little girl or the small ice queen and the warming in the same region as the boy child El Nino. There is a delay from the incident at Nino 3.4 at the eventual condition of the rest of the lower troposphere. I am not aware of any others that come close unless you are also counting RSS which uses the same basic data and applies its version of interpretations. I do believe they were using different channels or maybe different equipment for some observations which also lead to a minor difference. There is more than one satellite in orbit to gather this type of data.

  7. AndyW says:

    Thanks Mike, my Spanish was never the best.

    Good explanation, lets see how this comes out


    • Mike Davis says:

      I do not think I will be here in 200 or so years when there is enough historical data from the satellites to determine whatever trends exist. 31 years is way to short a period to see more than they are finding something. At this point is is all hypothetical guess work but I do tend to see what is being reported each month! 😉
      My Spanish consists of words like Taco and Burrito but after watching the ENSO pattern I came to remember the names of both patterns.
      This is probably the best site to gain knowledge about is agreed on regarding ENSO:
      I looked at WIKI and found they are confused about it so went to NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO.
      It is no wonder there is so much confusion about a symptom of long term variations in ocean atmosphere weather patterns. There are those that see a symptom as a cause.

  8. Scarlet Pumpernickel says:

    Here’s a laugh, a tax to reduce “Carbon” pollution (CO2 has more oxygen in it then carbon!!) will help the homeless!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!???????????????????????????????????

  9. Environmental activist group Union of Concerned Scientists bypasses peer review process and goes directly to the public:

    “If the climate continues to warm, we should expect an increase in heavy snow events for a few decades….”

  10. OT

    What is going on in the UK??

    Breast milk ice cream, flavor called “Baby Gaga”, banned from London shop!

    Most coming in to try it were women. Many wanted to donate ingredient.


  11. Scarlet Pumpernickel says:

    Anyone got a pic of Al Gore’s house in San Fran with snow on it yet?

  12. Scarlet Pumpernickel says:


  13. Lance says:

    as for snow ‘thing of the past’, its also been stated i believe that 2016 will be the last winter olympics due to lack of snow and cold….so i guess Canada will have to spank whoever for Gold in hockey, then we can shut everything down due to CAGW…

  14. slimething says:

    Would anyone happen to have a link to Steve’s quote of Dr. Spencer?

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