March Ice Extent Is Anti-Predictive

In the DMI record, there is an anti-correlation between March ice extent and September ice extent. The three highest years in March (2008 2009 2010) had lower summer minimums, while two of the lowest March extent years (2005 and 2006) had the highest summer minimums. 2011 is in the middle of the group.

In other words, you can’t judge ice/weather  conditions in the Arctic based on what is happening in Quebec.

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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3 Responses to March Ice Extent Is Anti-Predictive

  1. Andy Weiss says:

    It seems so clustered at times that it would not appear to show a doomsday scenario anytime soon.

    • suyts says:

      No, it doesn’t seemed to have changed much. It is interesting to note all of the doomsday predictions and the hyperbole that surround “all time lows” when one of the spaghetti lines wanders off course a bit.

      But, we should note, relevant to the upcoming days, 2010 had the highest amount recently recorded. 2006 had the least in this time period. Neither year finished below 2007 and 2008, which were our lowest in recent records. 2005, which never seems to get mentioned, generally had the more, except during the lowest time, when 2006 had more. But 2006 had the least during the winters of either side of its summer……….all of this meaning…..nothing. Other than to reinforce what Steve said.

      Anyone making proclamations regarding ice coverage during spring is simply blustering sophistry.

  2. Scott says:

    Anyone ever really noticed how fast the ice does an instant rebound in October before settling down to a slower gain rate in later months? Did this faster rebound used to happen back pre-apocalypse? If not, that could be good evidence of how close we are to NOT melting that ice…just a few days of no sun and BAM it’s back. That wouldn’t happen if the surface water was, say….10 C.

    I haven’t pulled out my sea ice spreadsheet in quite some time…I think it’s about time I start having some fun with it again. Maybe I’ll look at the October rates of gain in the CT area data set to see if the recent Oct gains are significantly better than the old ones.


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