NOAA Forecasts “Well Above 50%” Chance That La Nina Will Continue Until Next Year

This is a complete disaster for alarmists.

Stay tuned for the next update (by April 9th, or earlier) to see where the MEI will be heading next. While La Niña conditions are guaranteed well into 2011, it remains to be seen whether it will indeed last into 2012, as discussed seven months ago on this page. I believe the odds for a two-year event remain well above 50%, notwithstanding the possibility of temporary weakening during boreal summer. During the next few months, the MEI may very well stay stronger than Niño 3.4 since the latter is not normalized to account for weaker variability during this time of year.

About stevengoddard

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7 Responses to NOAA Forecasts “Well Above 50%” Chance That La Nina Will Continue Until Next Year

  1. Baa Humbug says:

    They won’t know in April. It’ll be half way through July before we know if Nino 3.4 will swing back towards a La Nina or continue rising towards an El Nino

  2. MikeTheDenier says:

    Geologist expects massive earthquake in Pacific NW

    Mar 19-26 Top seismic window in years

  3. Otter says:

    I’ve had quite enough of this past winter, and now it looks like at least the next one is going to be just as protracted. One could wish that AGW was real just so southern Canada could be more like Pennsylvania (my home area, which this past week was 10-15 degrees warmer than here just above Lake Erie.)

  4. Lance says:

    after this last winter, i would enjoy another el-nino winter! Please go neutral or warm…

  5. Andy Weiss says:

    La Nina is terrible for snow in the DC area, as we only had 9.9″ of snow this past winter.

    With weak El Nino during the warmcold winter of 2009-10 winter, most of the DC area got 60-80″. Being a snow lover, I’m happy to see La Nina go.

  6. John Harmon says:

    Here in Rockford, Il we only had one -20 temp reading. We did get 14.3″ at once but the snow kept the groung from freezing. Packed snow fills potholes. Cold weather reduces illness transfer? Andy, travel to Philly they got plenty of snow.
    Snow and cold are just part of winter here. Makes us tough. Or stupid.

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