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32 Responses to Whoops!

  1. Latitude says:

    “On March 7, 2011, Arctic sea ice likely reached its maximum extent for the year,”

    Only a month late…
    …ice didn’t get the memo

    And tied 2006 again…
    …which means nothing has happened in the past five years

    The question that needs to be asked is 1979-2000 really normal?
    and what made so much ice in that time period?

  2. Amino Acids in Meteorites says:

    Didn’t this happen last year too?

    Reports of the earth’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

    • Scott says:

      I don’t know about for the maximum, but it did happen for the minimum in Sept.

      On the other hand, these small changes in March/April don’t seem to matter much more than to get egg on the faces of the overly confident. I think the most important thing to get from these results is how close the ice is to it’s previous “healthy” condition. When a week of “favorable” weather cuts the ice “deficit” by 20% or more, it means the ice isn’t that unhealthy after all. The same goes for the minimum…2010 matched 2006 (the last year before the ice apocalypse) within 2-3 weeks after its minimum, showing that it wasn’t that different after all (note that after that 2010 went back lower than 2006 for quite some time, but not by a huge margin).

      The DMI temperatures are probably a better indicator for ice growth, and they’re running high. SSTs might even be better…how are they doing in the far north?


      • Amino Acids in Meteorites says:

        There was a bump up last year around this time too.


      • Amino Acids in Meteorites says:

        You’re right, getting overly confident about Arctic ice is dicey. Richard Lindzen says it’s highly variable. He also talks about the DMi temps

  3. Dave N says:

    To their credit, the NSIDC did say “appeared to reach its maximum” and “..there is still a chance that the ice extent could expand again..”.

    They generally have reports at the beginning of each month, and then of course this one for March 23rd which they figured was the beginning of the melt. It’ll be interesting to see if they have an early April report, and what exactly they will say.

  4. nofreewind says:

    Moron Scientists predict ice-free Arctic in 2013. We are now at the tipping point, blah blah blah. Of course the are going to be 100% wrong with their prediction, but that is meaningless, they will just move on to the next scare.

    • Jimbo says:

      I disagree. They will simply move the death date forward. Keep tuned and you will see this prediction will come into fruition.

  5. Lance says:

    Did Al baby head to the arctic to see all the melting?

  6. Andy Weiss says:

    The warmists are going to have a hissy fit!

  7. AndyW says:

    They do run a 5 day average though so we may find it has not beaten their previous call. JAXA for extent and Crysosphere for area show it not going past the earlier maximum.


    PS It is cold in the Bering at the moment and ice has stopped retreating their and put on a bit.

  8. AndyW says:

    Well lets see


  9. Nightvid Cole says:

    Neither IARC-JAXA nor NSIDC have it going above the March 7/8 maximum. For the NSIDC graph, take a ruler or other straight object and carefully hold it level across the earlier max. You will see that the March 7/8 max has not been surpassed. And the IARC JAXA data for April 3 shows a sharp decline, so it is unlikely that either of the two sources would have it go above the max of March 7/8 before declining noticeably from this local maximum.

    I’d be willing to bet at 500:1 odds on this.

    • DMI shows a peak. NSIDC uses a running mean and don’t publish their data. Impossible to imagine that sharp upturn without a very high daily value yesterday.

      • Nightvid Cole says:

        You put the NSIDC graph first on this page to show your point, and now you’re jumping to an obscure source like DMI, this is moving the goalposts.

      • Nightvid Cole says:

        That’s not the point. The point is that DMI and ROOS seem less quality controlled than the other sources. I find NSIDC and IARC-JAXA trustworthy because they use two DIFFERENT satellites and manage to agree with each other quite well anyway.

      • Nightvid Cole says:

        And also because the DMI dataset is clearly not quality controlled, as for instance you see those weird downward spikes in Autumn 2009.

      • Nightvid Cole says:

        Wind doesn’t create fluctuations that large on that small a time scale. Nice try, though.

      • Nightvid Cole says:

        OK, but IARC-JAXA agrees with NSIDC, and besides, in a few days (Or maybe today or tomorrow?) NSIDC will confirm the March 7/8 maximum and you will see that I am right.

      • Nightvid Cole says:

        1. The % concentration threshold isn’t the only criterion of relevance.

        2. Maybe 50 miles in one day locally, but it won’t be all compacted or spread simultaneously around the entire ice edge by 50 miles in one day. After all, the wind cannot blow north or south everywhere at one time, or else that air would have nowhere to go…

  10. Nightvid Cole says:

    Clarification: Willing to bet at 500:1 odds that the March 7/8 max will not be surpassed according to either NSIDC or IARC-JAXA until winter 2012 or later.

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