NSIDC Forgot To Throw A Party For The One Year Olds

[Update : Actually, I just forgot to use my brain. This post is completely bogus – as explained here]

The blink comparator above flashes between normalized NSIDC end of September 2010 ice age percentages and April, 2011 ice age percentages. I see a problem.

All of the turquoise on the right edge of the September graph should have changed to green over the winter (minus any 1-2 ice which was disproportionately transported out of the Arctic.) NSIDC changed their percentage scheme from 30% concentration to 15% concentration over the winter, but that won’t account for this.

Polar drift doesn’t selectively target 1-2 year old ice, so I think something is wrong. The amount on the right edge which changed from turquoise to green looks too small to me.

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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9 Responses to NSIDC Forgot To Throw A Party For The One Year Olds

  1. AndyW says:

    You need to email Walt or Mark to explain it to you.

    Andy

  2. suyts says:

    Well, I’m hesitant to state this, but better from me than some infantile troll.

    30% of 4 million = 10% of 12 million.

  3. Peter Ellis says:

    Polar drift doesn’t selectively target 1-2 year old ice
    Yes it does.

    Most of the advection is via Fram strait. The 3+year old ice (what little is left) is plastered across the north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, and there’s essentially no flow through that during the winter. The first-year ice in the graph is newly-formed ice and thus by definition hasn’t been advected out of the Arctic. The remaining ice – the stuff that actually exits the Arctic during the winter – is the ice that started in the central basin in September (i.e. it’s >1 year old) and doesn’t end up stuck in the “old ice” stronghold around the Lincoln / Beaufort seas.

    Ice becomes 3-year-old ice (or older) by ending up in low-advection regions rather than being carried out with the transpolar drift.

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