Last update: 6 April 2011
While La Niña conditions are guaranteed for at least a few months more, it remains to be seen whether it will indeed last into 2012, as discussed eight months ago on this page. I believe the odds for a two-year event remain well above 50%, notwithstanding the possibility of temporary weakening during boreal summer. During the next few months, the MEI may very well stay stronger than Niño 3.4 since the latter is not normalized to account for weaker variability during this time of year. The current event has also shown a persistent tendency for stronger atmospheric than oceanic anomalies.
Looks like Hansen got it exactly backwards.
Thursday 31 March 2011by: James E. Hansen and Makiko Sato
Based on subsurface ocean temperatures, the way these have progressed the past several months, and comparisons with development of prior El Niños, we believe that the system is moving toward a strong El Niño starting this summer. It’s not a sure bet, but it is probable.