Further Disaster Strikes Hansen’s Kingdom : NOAA Still Forecasting Multi-Year La Nina

Last update: 6 April 2011

While La Niña conditions are guaranteed for at least a few months more, it remains to be seen whether it will indeed last into 2012, as discussed eight months ago on this page. I believe the odds for a two-year event remain well above 50%, notwithstanding the possibility of temporary weakening during boreal summer. During the next few months, the MEI may very well stay stronger than Niño 3.4 since the latter is not normalized to account for weaker variability during this time of year. The current event has also shown a persistent tendency for stronger atmospheric than oceanic anomalies.


Looks like Hansen got it exactly backwards.

Thursday 31 March 2011
by: James E. Hansen and Makiko Sato

Based on sub­sur­face ocean tem­pera­tures, the way these have pro­gres­sed the past sever­al months, and com­parisons with de­velop­ment of prior El Niños, we be­lieve that the sys­tem is mov­ing toward a strong El Niño start­ing this summ­er. It’s not a sure bet, but it is pro­b­able.



About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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2 Responses to Further Disaster Strikes Hansen’s Kingdom : NOAA Still Forecasting Multi-Year La Nina

  1. Jimbo says:

    “Eighty-five to ninety per cent of the Arctic ice already has vanished,…..”

  2. Amino Acids in Meteorites says:

    The NOAA has been wrong before and they could be wrong again. Warm water is forming west of the Galapagos.

    But Hansen will probably be wrong too because it does not look strong. That may be wishful thinking on his part.

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