1974 : Climatologists Blamed US/Pakistan Flooding On Global Cooling

Another Ice Age?

Monday, Jun. 24, 1974

In Africa, drought continues for the sixth consecutive year, adding terribly to the toll of famine victims. During 1972 record rains in parts of the U.S., Pakistan and Japan caused some of the worst flooding in centuries. In Canada’s wheat belt, a particularly chilly and rainy spring has delayed planting and may well bring a disappointingly small harvest. Rainy Britain, on the other hand, has suffered from uncharacteristic dry spells the past few springs. A series of unusually cold winters has gripped the American Far West, while New England and northern Europe have recently experienced the mildest winters within anyone’s recollection.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914,00.html

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29 Responses to 1974 : Climatologists Blamed US/Pakistan Flooding On Global Cooling

  1. Lance says:

    2011 – hmmm, cold and 3 weeks behind in planting in southern alberta…but this is just weather….

  2. Daniel Packman says:

    Don’t confuse time magazine with a peer reviewed journal.

    • The NCAR graph in the Newsweek article showed temperatures plummeting since 1940.

      • Dan says:

        Seems a lot of people look at Time and Newsweek from the 70’s and think they have a handle on the scientific consensus of the time. This is a fine example of the media creating a story and drama where there is none.

      • RobbCab says:

        Daniel,

        I purposely left off the multiple stories that ran in Time, Newsweek, New York, the Saturday Evening Post and others to give you a quick “bakers dozen” of peer reviewed articles published from the early 60s to the early 80s. There’s more, but I’ll bet you won’t bother to read even one of these.

        1962 J. D. Ives, “Indications of Recent Extensive Glacierization in Northcentral Baffin Island, NWT.” J. Glaciology 4: 197-205.

        1964 W.B. Harland, “Critical Evidence for a Great Infra-Cambrian Glaciation.” Geologisches Rundschau 54: 45-61.

        1969 Alex T. Wilson, “The Climatic Effects of Large-Scale Surges of Ice Sheets.” Canadian J. Earth Sciences 6: 911-18.

        1972 W. Dansgaard, et al., “Speculations About the Next Glaciation.” Quaternary Research 2: 396-98.

        1972 George J. Kukla and Alois Kocí, “End of the Last Interglacial in the Loess Record.” Quaternary Research 2: 374-83.

        1972 George J. Kukla, et al., “The End of the Present Interglacial.” Quaternary Research 2: 261-69

        1974 Reginald E. Newell, “Changes in the Poleward Energy Flux by the Atmosphere and Ocean as a Possible Cause for Ice Ages.” Quaternary Research 4: 117-127.

        1974, 1977 United States, Central Intelligence Agency. “Potential Implications of Trends in World Population, Food Production, and Climate, OPR-401, Aug. 1974. Published as Appendix II of Impact Team (1977). The Weather Conspiracy. New York: Ballantine

        1974 George J. Kukla, Increased Surface Albedo in the Northern Hemisphere, Science 22 February 1974: Vol. 183 no. 4126 pp. 709-714

        1975 John Gribbin, “Cause and Effects of Global Cooling.” Nature 254: 14.

        1976 Paul E. Damon and Steven M. Kunen, “Global Cooling?” Science 193: 447-53

        1976 Lowell Ponte, The Cooling. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.

        1982 A. T. WILSON Origin of Ice Ages: An Ice Shelf Theory for Pleistocene Glaciation Journal: Nature , vol. 201, no. 4915, pp. 147-149, 1964

      • Dan says:

        Again this fiction of a scientific consensus of global cooling in the 70’s. From one of your references: “Global cooling and related rapid changes of environment, substantially exceeding the fluctuations experienced by man in historical times, must be expected within the next few millennia or even centuries.”
        We still expect a glacial period in 20,000 years or so.

    • Amino Acids in Meteorites says:

      You are funny Daniel.

    • suyts says:

      “Don’t confuse time magazine with a peer reviewed journal.”

      I don’t know why not,……….. they are of the same value.

      From Secchi disks to penguin killing, peer-reviewed has become a euphemism for works of fiction and joke story telling……. did you hear the one about people believing treeometers?

    • Jimbo says:

      Don’t confuse time magazine with a peer reviewed journal.

      Don’t confuse a peer reviewed journal with time magazine.

      Abstract – 1972
      Insolation regime of interglacials
      George J. Kukla Helena J. Kukla
      Quaternary Research Volume 2, Issue 3, November 1972, Pages 412–424
      ………It is observed that the positive insolation regime designated as PIR […] the MathML source, which started at 11,000 YBP, has ended recently. The new negative insolation regime, NIR 0/ + 8, will last for the next 8000 yr. Inasmuch within the last radiometrically dated 150,000 yr no NIR is known to correlate with generally warm interval, the prognosis is for a long-lasting global cooling more severe than any experiened hitherto by civilized mankind.
      http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(72)90067-1
      ——————————-
      ——————————-
      Abstract – 1971
      S. I. Rasool1, S. H. Schneider1
      Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate
      …..For aerosols, however, the net effect of increase in density is to reduce the surface temperature of Earth. Because of the exponential dependence of the backscattering, the rate of temperature decrease is augmented with increasing aerosol content. An increase by only a factor of 4 in global aerosol background concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5 ° K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease over the whole globe is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age.
      http://www.sciencemag.org/content/173/3992/138.short

  3. mohatdebos says:

    I keep praying that we have a forgiving God. He gave us warmth and prosperity and we called it the greatest challenge to mankind ever (I won’t deny that prosperous people seek less government so warmth and prosperity were, indeed, a challenge to those that would like to control how we live our lives). I hope he is not about to punish us with cold and wet, which leads to famine and pestilence.

  4. Remember, children: Time magazine put a question mark in the article’s title so it was NOT a prediction.

    • Amino Acids in Meteorites says:

      Ohhh, so they’ve stopped using the words, ‘could’, ‘might’, ‘possibly’, ‘may’, ‘if’….

  5. Amino Acids in Meteorites says:

    Media and Peer Review, both talked of the coming ice age:

    • Dan says:

      The music background makes it clear that they are reporting on a scientific consensus. Very convincing.

  6. Andy Weiss says:

    The way temps are dropping, don’t be surprised if the Ice Age drivel rears its head again. And, of course humans will be to blame, as if humanity had anything to do with the last one.

  7. omnologos says:

    what’s supremely funny is that the world was cooling until 1975 more or less, yet one is supposed to spend time convincing revisionists like Dan about something obvious.

    • suyts says:

      Its important for them in order to keep the myth of consensus infallibility. It utterly falls apart when the consensus of the coming ice age is acknowledged. Psychologists should study this phenomenon.

      You could no more prove to them it occurred by showing the peer-reviewed literature, than you can convince them the earth isn’t warming by showing them HadCrut’s nearly 14 year temp decline. They simply will not acknowledge reality.

  8. Al Gored says:

    Guess I may as well post this here too…

    “In 1971 Prof. Stephen Schneider of Stanford University claimed the earth was in danger from “Global Cooling”. One of his associates Prof. Paul Ehrlich also of Stanford stated,(also in 1971) “Carry on as we are and there is no chance of reaching the year 2000″.”

    Here is the reference:

    Schneider S. & Rasool S., “Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols – Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate”, Science, vol.173, 9 July 1971, p.138-141

    Where we find:

    “We report here on the first results of a calculation in which separate estimates were made of the effects on global temperature of large increases in the amount of CO2 and dust in the atmosphere. It is found that even an increase by a factor of 8 in the amount of CO2, which is highly unlikely in the next several thousand years, will produce an increase in the surface temperature of less than 2 deg. K.

    However, the effect on surface temperature of an increase in the aerosol content of the atmosphere is found to be quite significant. An increase by a factor of 4 in the equilibrium dust concentration in the global atmosphere, which cannot be ruled out as a possibility within the next century, could decrease the mean surface temperature by as much as 3.5 deg. K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease could be sufficient to trigger an ice age!”

    • suyts says:

      As I recollect, Schneider & Rasool had a few global cooling peer-reviewed papers

    • Dan says:

      Seems that this old modeling was a bit off and that should come as no surprise. The wording “first results” hardly makes this single paper an indication of unanimity in the scientific community of anything.

      • suyts says:

        Uhmm, yeh Dan, that’s way different than the 76 strong unanimity that we have today with global warming!

        http://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf

        I dunno, count the authors and co-authors of the studies, papers and books you’ve been shown, include the “reviewers” and see if you can’t get close the 76 strong “consensus” we have today. I’m guessing betting it gets pretty close. Be sure to factor the ratio of climatologists then compared to now, and I’m putting money on we had every bit of a consensus then on global cooling as we do now with global warming.

        Just by Robb’s and Al Gored’s contributions, I’m counting 16 names without the “et. al” or reviewers. Throw in a couple more from Latitude shows (Holdren and Ehrlich) on the “Hope And Change In Colorado” posting, and voila! We have every bit of the consensus!! I’m sure you’ll find ways to rationalize your way around it as do most warmists, but its there, its reality, and it was every bit as valid as current climate theory.

        I think it was my 4th grade year when they first started shoving that global cooling in my head………

  9. omnologos says:

    Just wait until somebody points out that it wasn’t “ice age” they were consensual about, it was “global cooling”. Only thing, they were also consensual on the fact that a few degrees of lower temperatures would bring about…another ice age.

    • Latitude says:

      That’s the common end result I’ve read on all of them….

      They were all adamant that just 1 or 2 degrees ‘lower’, would put us in another ice age………….

  10. nofreewind says:

    Here’s our dearly departed buddy Stephen Schneider, comes in at 0:35.

    He is actually talking some sense, the cure for the coming ice age “could be worse than the disease”. I am sure he means well.

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