Experts of the “Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme” say that the Arctic ice is melting faster than had been predicted and that the levels of the world oceans may increase by one and half meters in this century.
The image below shows actual sea level rise in blue measured by Envisat, versus the claimed rate of the experts (green) (15 mm /year.)
Steve,
Wow. I read this same info form another source that was actually coherent. This article sates ice ages can last for hundreds of years!
Somehow I think the members of “AMAP” would consider your graph highly disingenuous. Some might say it is an outright lie, since they do not anywhere state anything resembling what your graph shows. Of course people in the know, such as myself understand your point, so don’t fret about that
You did take geometry in high school? It is very tricky plotting a trend line.
Sea level rise is predicted to be exponential, not linear (well, the upswing part of a sigmoid, if you want to argue). 1.5 metres in a century does not imply 15 mm per year.
So it is going to get much, much steeper than I drew. I was being too conservative.
I predict that monkeys are going to fly out of ….
hehe 😉
TonyD:
Seeing how the current Ice Age is somewhere close to thirty eight Millions years old and the Glacial periods last tens of thousands of years with Interglacials lasting up to ten thousand years you might want to rethink your claims!
Now if you are referring to the Little Ice Age from 1300 to 1800 which was a short period of reglaciation that the recent warming was a partial recovery from then your false claim of hundreds of years is understandable.
Mike,
PLEASE read my posts before commenting, and yes, I humbly accept your retraction.
Here is the link again so you don’t have to waste time going to Steve’s site twice!
http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/05/04/49834220.html
There is a difference between a statement of total rise in a century and an assumption of a fixed linear rate of rise over the entire century.
I see, so the rate will actually be much steeper than I drew.
Much steeper towards the end of the century, yes. Much shallower now.
Peter, click on the links provided just below……. “predicted” vs. reality.
Dan,
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/lack-of-acceleration-sea-level1.jpg
I suppose we could have Steve put a logarithmic curve there, but it wouldn’t be near scary enough for you. (be sure to check the source of the jpg.)
Another graph implying logarithmic curvature.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/romanm_slensemble_annotated.png
Wow, no love for the man. 🙁
Dan’s been busting Steve’s chops for days about a linear trend in the sea-level rise, so, being the nice guy that I am, I show him two different graphs from reputable sources to show sea level rise with a curve in the trend and I don’t even get so much as a “high-five!”
High five.
🙂
Sea levels could just as easily fall by 4 meters as raise by 1 during the next 90 years.
I think what we should be really preparing for is a stabilization before a drop in sea level, which appears to be occurring. My take on the geological record, is that ice ages happen precipitously, catching creatures off-guard and leading to extinction events.
One of my reasons, is the mechanism of reflectivity. This is a real tipping point, as we have seen clearly in short term events, where snow cover reduces incoming radiation, causing cold and wet summers, thus causing a long-term climatic event as the snow cover increases. This is exacerbated, or caused, by a weakening solar cycle. I would expect the snow cover increase to proceed logarithmically, if not geometrically.
So, I’m surprised no one commented on the Arctic Ice being discussed in context of rising sea levels. No, they don’t say that that the rise is due to the loss of sea ice, but the laymen would definitely get that impression. I find it misleading.
-Scott
I agree. Simplifying is one thing, but it is important to be clear that the issue is Greenland, not the arctic sea. How hard is it to say greenland?
Exactly, and I wasn’t up for another trivial conversation about what constitutes the arctic.
Yes Scott, you are absolutely right. The statement seems to suggest that Arctic ice melt will raise sea levels. Melting Arctic ice cannot raise sea levels at all – regardless of how “much faster” the ice may (or may not) be melting.
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Steven: Could you please provide a link to the webpage that’s the source of your global sea level graph and/or the data used in your graph?
Thanks.
Sure, it is downloaded from here http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/products-images/
Raw Envisat – no “corrections”
Thanks
Bob, go here, http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/products-images/
You’ll have to play with the radio buttons below……. pretty cool site.
lol, note to self…..refresh before posting……
If Arctic ice melt causes sea levels to rise then shouldn’t the winter freeze up cause sea levels to fall?
Please stop trying to balance the equation. Melt caused by CO2 only allows things to move in one direction……..the death spiral, doom direction.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/05/04/experts-arctic-ice-is-melting-faster-than-had-been-predicted/#comment-55639
And read down.
In this particular instance, they’re not really talking about arctic sea ice, but rather the ice on land in or near the arctic circle, such as Greenland.
Even still, it is a laughable proposition, I hope that helps.
Ice melted by CO2 cannot refreeze, because it is so darn hot!
CO2 the Chuck Norris of the molecular world.
lol, I knew I was forgetting something in my explanation.
I have travelled all across the high Arctic, which is a virtual desert – i.e. very dry, with almost no snow. The little land snow that exists completely melts during the summer and ends up back in the Arctic ocean – where it came from.
The hockey stick has not materialized, so OK, we will just predict it again but further out in the future. You could keep this silly game going forever that way and never get a bit of warming.
Steve,
Can you tell me where you got the Envisat data from?
Click on the link and read down.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/05/04/experts-arctic-ice-is-melting-faster-than-had-been-predicted/#comment-55691
There you will find two identical links. Click on one of them. Play with the radio buttons(Envisat). Notice buttons on lower right which state “Download the data …”
Hope that helps.
The serious point that everybody seems to have missed is that the referenced article makes a asssertion without evidence that the sea level might rise by 1.5 metres by the end of the century. Doubtless this is based on a prediction from climate modelling, thus involving the usual flawed circular reasoning.
We should be investigating, and taking to task, the people who made this claim, not wasting time arguing about exponential v. logarithmic v. linear which in effect diverts attention from the real issue which is that the report is pure speculation (a.k.a. rubbish).
Making the comparison between the satellite data and a speculation dignifies the latter as somehow being an alternative scientifically valid statement, which it is not.
Users – Tasiilaq supply cancelled, ice too thick – http://goo.gl/JLe8r
I came to your defense today, Stephen. Refer to the update at the end of my post:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/05/06/the-silliest-rebuttal-yet-from-ben-at-wottsupwiththat/
Regards