Arctic Ice Gone By 2008

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60 Responses to Arctic Ice Gone By 2008

  1. Scott says:

    What metric are they using here? I just don’t get their numbers.

    CT Area:
    2000 min = 4.17 (all in million km^2)
    2007 min = 2.92
    Highest min = 1980 = 5.51

    NSIDC Sept Area:
    2000 = 4.31
    2007 = 2.78
    Highest = 1987 = 5.60

    NSIDC Sept Extent:
    2000 = 6.32
    2007 = 4.30
    Highest = 1996 = 7.88

    So what metric are they using? The article implies that the Arctic minimum dropped by 60% between 2000 and 2007, but none of the above metrics represent that at all! Maybe they’re comparing the summer minimum of 2007 to some arbitrary month/day in 2000, but you could do the same with an arbitrary day in 2007…

    And wow, it’s been a long time since I had my sea ice spreadsheet out…


  2. Tony Duncan says:


    pleased that you have someone to legitimately decry for making a ridiculous prediction for 2008!

  3. AndyW says:

    Looks like it is going to be pretty warm on the Canadian side by weekend. Should be some more break up in the NW passage.

  4. Ill wind blowing says:

    Haven’t had time to read about the fool who predicted 2008 but it seems that too much attention is being given to an individual who is not a climatologist. I know that Maslowski predicted a 70% chance of ice free conditions by 2013 and I thought that was too extreme.

    However, the real situation about ice cap predictions is the opposite of what is being implied on this thread; which is pathetically trying to judge thousands of Climatologists on the basis of two individuals.

    The situation with predictions about ice free conditions has been one of consistent understatement. The IPCC originally estimated the year 2100 based on linear calculations and specifically stating that accelerative forces (positive feedback loops) were not taken into consideration. They are meaningless predictions worthy of being trashed.

    More serious calculations indicated the years 2050 or 2040. However, even these calculations were wrong. Those who made them were not able to take all positive feedback loops into account. So the ice cap shrunk faster then expected. Soon after, when the unexpected accelerations were taken into account, the predictions became more realistic, 2020-2030.

    Maslowski with his 2013 date was an outlier. The other Norwegian yahoo doesn’t count for anything. The official prediction still remains at 2020-2030. So the general trend has been towards underestimation and dates getting earlier and earlier; not the other way around.

    As I stated on another thread; 2018-2022 for a few days of ice free summer (lengthening to weeks and eventually months in subsequent years).

    But of course, by the time that happens, you’ll be saying that you predicted it all along.

    You may now go to sleep-Zzzzzzzzzzzzz

    • Mike Davis says:

      The IPCC does not estimate anything! The IPCC does not do any science because the IPCC is not a scientific body! The IPCC is a multi government agency that compiles information needed to support an agenda and prove more government controls are needed on a global scale. The head of the IPCC is not even a scientist and yet is named a climatologist by many. That means that climatology is not a scientific field but a field of advocacy. Due to other practitioners it could well be described as a religion because of the words and actions of the faithful followers.
      As I have stated before an ice free Arctic region would not be a new condition for that region and past evidence suggests just your scenario has happened during periods in the past. Long term weather history of the region suggests that that is not in store for the region again during this interglacial.
      If human activity were to cause a change in weather patterns that one day result in an ice free Arctic region for a lengthening period that would actually be a good thing as warmer Arctic would reduce the extreme weather conditions in other regions and expand the habitable areas of the planet.
      Warm promotes growth and cold restricts growth.

      • P.J. says:

        Climatologists … jacks of all trades, masters of none.

      • Mike Davis says:

        Spelling error there: OF maybe would be better spelled OFF.

      • Mike Davis says:

        When I was younger I wanted to be a fisherman. The boat captain started me as an Apprentice Baiter. With much practice I became a Master********. 😉 Your jack reminded me of that!

      • chris y says:

        It is a travesty that you label Trenberth a liar-

        ““In fact there are no predictions by IPCC at all. And there never have been.”

        Now explain to all of us why the IPCC reports even exist…

      • P.J. says:

        @Mike: Classic – I just got the “off” reference … require more caffeination 🙂 .

      • Ill wind blowing says:

        Regardless of the nature of the IPCC, it most obviously has made predictions and estimates. Anyone knowledgeable in this issue should know that right off the bat.

      • PhilJourdan says:

        ILB – Camping made predictions and estimates too. So he is asa good as the IPCC? Everyone should know that right off the bat.

    • You thought an ice-free Arctic in two years was too extreme? You are a genius.

      • Ill wind blowing says:

        I thought that a 70% chance of ice free arctic was extreme when Maslowski first made that estimate (Hint, it wasn’t 2 years ago). So what?

        By the way, who were the geniuses on WUWT who predicted the arctic ice cap would return to 1979 extent and thicknesses in a few years? (Hint; it was not climatologists) Why is it that every time I mention that fantabulous prediction made on WUWT (remember “you betcha”) I hear nothing but crickets?

        Face it, most Climatologists went from 2040+ all the way down to 2020-2030. That reality of bringing down the bar is the opposite of this thread’s claim that the predictions have gone the other way. As usual, the examples used are cherry picked without an honest and consistent view of Climatological history.

        Face it once more; a death spiral it is and the 2020-2030 date is still official. However, individuals are realizing a possible early date of 2018+. Furthermore more, what’s the point of skeptics quibbling over the exact dates of such predictions when it is obviously happening?

        This quibbling of skeptics is the equivalent of a weatherman predicting landfall for a hurricane at a specific hour the day after tomorrow only to have it arrive 4 hours later. “You see! You see!”, says the hurricane skeptic who doesn’t even believe there’s a hurricane in the first place; “It did not come at that hour, therefore it does not exist!”

        So keep quoting the idiots and nincompoops in order to give the false impression that they represent the Climatological community.

  5. suyts says:

    IWB, “But of course, by the time that happens, you’ll be saying that you predicted it all along.”

    Given that most skeptics believe the arctic has been in the past, essentially ice free, most of us believe in the natural course of things, that it will be again. So, yes, it turns out, we’ve predicted it all along, well before the doomsaysers. The difficulty we have is that all of the johnny-come-lately’s keep moving their predictions around so much so, that they’ve covered the board…….much like Hansen’s 3 different scenarios, We’ve seen predictions from 2013- 2050 and before…… so if the ice melts in this century, they will claim they were right all along….. Of course, their track record is so poor, even when they double down on red and black, that because of their prognostications, I have to rethink my views. When I find I’m in agreement with Malthusian misanthropists, I have to check myself and see where I went wrong. 🙂

    • Tony Duncan says:


      what you are saying is in direct contradiction to a number of “skeptics” who have been saying that we are in for a cycle of significant cold. NO climate scientist that I know of who supports ACC believes arctic ice is going to increase in the next 3o years, non are betting on black at all. so regardless of the date if arctic ice increase to 1970 levels then they will be wrong and those supporting cooling will be right.
      what you are doing is saying that no matter what happens you are right
      sorry I can’t respond to all the other comments, you and others make some good points, but I am really busy for the next few weeks

      • Tony Duncan says:


        your welcome, you are now free to make whatever ridiculous or false statements you want without fear of someone actually comparing them to reality (though I mostly ignore the ridiculous posts anyway)

      • suyts says:

        Lol, so Tony, you still believe that alarmists predictions are confined to what was actually stated before the events? lol, Tony, the arctic hit a low in 2007…..did you hear of any rebound predictions then? No? But it has increased!! However, what is occurring is what they stated all along! No one has to be stating the ice will increase. If it does, that’s what they will have stated all along…….just like more snow = global warming. Or droughtflood. or more and less ocean salinity….. etc.

        Hope you find some free time soon, Tony.

      • Latitude says:

        Tony suffers from TFSDS (touchy feely selective data syndrome)
        Even though they go some parts wrong, they got all the other parts right………..

    • Ill wind blowing says:

      The last time the Arctic was partially ice free was in the Holocene thermal maximum. It was completely ice free at least a million years ago. All claims that it’s been ice free early in the 20th century and also the 19th century are schlock.

      The schlock proof for this, that one poster gave, was the example of Amundsen crossing the Northwest Passage in the early 1900s. What that poster did not mention was that it took him 3 years with two overwintering stays. Nowadays it would take Amundsen a couple weeks to do the same. He would not even consider it a challenge to traverse what is truly an OPEN passage (Hint: open means ice free not ice clogged as in 1903-1906).

      As for your track record, please always remember, and don’t ever forget WUWT’s glorious prophecy of the arctic ice cap recovering to 1979 extent and thickness.

      Face it you have predicted nothing. You don’t even move the goal posts you set them all over the field. The ice cap is thickening and growing and it doesn’t matter that it’s shrinking because it’s done that before and nothing bad happened.

      Once again, in condensed version: “It’s expanding and it doesn’t matter that it’s shrinking” Yes, have your cake and eat it.

      Just remember, my statement has a lot more predicting power than your cover-all-possibilities non-committal statement.

      • suyts says:

        IWB, the two years, wintering in Greenland were purposeful. He was proving that the magnetic north pole had shifted……. read this for a good history of his adventure. It has some other useful facts that one can take meanings from……

        Where do you get your half information from?

        I’ve seen this posted a couple of times, “As for your track record, please always remember, and don’t ever forget WUWT’s glorious prophecy of the arctic ice cap recovering to 1979 extent and thickness.” Now, I don’t read all of WUWT offerings, but I’ve been a fairly regular reader and commenter their for some time……. I think you’re a bit off in your presentation of facts, but I’d be happy to stand corrected if you can show a link to “WUWT” predicting a recent return to 1979 ice levels.

        Your paraphrasing…..“The ice cap is thickening and growing and it doesn’t matter that it’s shrinking because it’s done that before and nothing bad happened.” is 100% correct!! Better, it is also factual. The minimum ice extent has grown since a low in 2007. The ice has thickened in the last couple of years.(You’ve been presented proof of both) There’s plenty of evidence the polar caps have melted several times before in human history and nothing bad has happened. Tell me, whether you think the MWP was local or not, how much ice extent would we have knowing the Vikings in Greenland successfully grew crops to support their farm animals? The Russians, circa 1920-30s charted their side of the arctic and have shown virtually ice free conditions…… see one of Latitude’s and Dr. Stroeve’s conversations.

        IWB, I’m sorry I don’t see a monster behind every climate gyration, but that’s the way it is. If you want a prediction you can nail to the wall, here’s one. Our climate will be just fine. If it does present any unforeseen challenges, I have full faith that mankind will adapt and overcome……just as he’s done for several millennia. And, BTW, my statements aren’t non-committal, but rather gloss over the minutia and go to the heart of what is important. Oh!!! Here’s another one…….unless hunting and harvesting restrictions are significantly changed the Polar bear population will be 20,000-25,000 regardless of ice extent in the next 5 and 10 and 15 and 20 years……..just like it has been for about 30 years or so.

        I just don’t have anything else to predict. There’s no monster under the bed, there’s no monster in the closet and there is no monster in the arctic……. unless a person is physically in the arctic, in which case, the monster is the Polar bear itself.

  6. NoMoreGore says:

    Wow, I guess we really are doomed. The upside is that New York and San Francisco will be the first to go.

  7. Andy WeissDC says:

    The forecast that is by far more important is when we are going to have the next set of 1930’s type crop failures in the US Corn Belt due to drought and heat. If you think food prices are high, just wait until that takes place. IWB, are you willing to make a forecast in that regard?

    • Ill wind blowing says:

      I believe that I already did in a past thread.

      But here it is again. Crop failures, of the magnitude that occurred in 2010 to early 2011 will occur within this decade. There will probably be 3-4 years that: approach, but don’t equal; actually equal; or exceed the 2010/11 failures by the year 2020. It’s downhill from there on.

      The 1930 argument is another phony comparison to our present situation because it was in the North American continent that the worse happened and for a limited time. Other events of our present warming (last 30 years) did not occur in the first half of the 20th century.

      Since you will counter that with contrived open arctic anecdotes, please consider the following. Was the Siberian Permafrost drastically melting in the 1930s to the same degree that it is now (or anytime in the first half of the 20th century)? It would have to if the Arctic region was warmer.

      We would have historical records of such permafrost melt happening if it were so. Buildings and bridges would not have been built back then because of the soft, even swampy nature of the soil. Yet they were built back then.

      • Ill wind blowing says:

        My apologies to some of the posters. My language is a little bit sarcastic and, since I’m new, I’m not sure of the pro or con AGW position of everyone here.

  8. Latitude says:

    “So the ice cap shrunk faster then expected”

    The total disconnect…….
    They didn’t get that part right, but they got all the other parts right………..

    • Ill wind blowing says:

      Yes it shrank faster than incomplete models expected. So what? Why do you ask for Omniscience from others when you yourselves are in total disconnect with your outrageous predictions?

      Please always remember and don’t ever forget; it was WUWT that predicted the ice cap would expand and thicken to 1979 levels. “You betcha!”

  9. PhilJourdan says:

    Ill wind blowing says:
    June 14, 2011 at 9:08 am
    Haven’t had time to read about the fool who predicted 2008 but it seems that too much attention is being given to an individual who is not a climatologist. I know that Maslowski predicted a 70% chance of ice free conditions by 2013 and I thought that was too extreme.

    However, the real situation about ice cap predictions is the opposite of what is being implied on this thread; which is pathetically trying to judge thousands of Climatologists on the basis of two individuals.

    I am curious – just what is a climatologist? Is it a person who has a degree in cosmetology? (Err, sorry, climatology)? And who decides who IS and IS NOT a climatologist? Would that be just East Anglia? Or. like other religions, only those who believe in the central tenets of the religion can call themselves a “climatologist”?

    • Ill wind blowing says:

      Yawn! Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

      • PhilJourdan says:

        So you have no answer? If you do not know what a climatologist is, how can you use the term authoratatively? (You stated who was and was not one). When you use terms that you have no clue about, you come off looking like an ignorant fool.


    • Latitude says:

      You have to figure, they are not going to send a sub up there if there’s no open ice for it to surface.. obviously there was lots of open ice in the mid 20’s

    • Ill wind blowing says:

      Open water at the North Pole – 1926

      It’s known as a P.O.L.Y.N.Y.A.. They happen all the time in the thickest of ice concentration at the Arctic. It is ridiculous to assume that they have to be the result of melting. What happens is that ice floes separate from each other exposing open waters. It’s the mechanical action of ice drifts that account for that.

      As I said before, why wasn’t the Siberian permafrost melting to the extent that it currently is. How could it not if the Arctic right above it was supposedly warmer.

      It’s pathetic how anecdotal evidence that gives no view of the whole Arctic can be spun. Cherry pick one area and ridiculously generalize it to apply it to the whole arctic; meanwhile ignore obvious non-warming explanations.

  10. Jimbo says:

    Ill wind blowing says:
    June 14, 2011 at 9:08 am
    Haven’t had time to read about the fool who predicted 2008 but it seems that too much attention is being given to an individual who is not a climatologist.

    Interesting you should say that because……………….

    National GeographicJune 2008
    “We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker.
    “I would say the ice in the vicinity of the North Pole is primed for melting, and an ice-free North Pole is a good possibility,” Sheldon Drobot, a climatologist at the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research at the University of Colorado,…..

    Barber is Canada Research Chair in Arctic system science.
    Ice-free for the first time in history. This is false. 🙂

    • “ce-free for the first time in history. This is false.”

      Bill Mckibben knows the truth:

      It’s far smarter to repeat to yourself the comforting mantra that no single weather event can ever be directly tied to climate change. There have been tornadoes before, and floods — that’s the important thing. Just be careful to make sure you don’t let yourself wonder why all these record-breaking events are happening in such proximity — that is, why there have been unprecedented megafloods in Australia, New Zealand and Pakistan in the past year. Why it’s just now that the Arctic has melted for the first time in thousands of years.

      A link between climate change and Joplin tornadoes? Never!

      That’s right – the first time that the WP has printed a factual headline.

      Bill McKibben is founder of the global climate campaign and a distinguished scholar at Middlebury College in Vermont, and of course has never made a statement that can’t be backed up by An Inconvenient Truth

      • suyts says:

        More abuse of the English language, but just for clarification when you say “unprecedented”, you mean hasn’t happened for a while or has never happened before. Please be specific and cite. In the mean time, understand there is no yearly increase in tornado trends and ACE values have declined.

        As to the Joplin tornado, I take great exception to use human suffering to score political points. Being a neighbor and having family members loose all that they have, I think it despicable that you or McKibben would stoop so low. WTF? Do you not understand geography or randomness? How asininely stupid are you and McKibben? Are you telling me climate change specifically choose the proper intensity, the proper path and the proper length on the ground, each one carries with it an infinite amounts of variables, in order to effect that type of destruction? Are you really that fcktarded to think this wasn’t anything but random or do you think CC is starting to aim tornadoes at cities?

        And on your way out, you moron, consider that in order for tornadic activity to occur, two things need to happen in confluence……..a warm front, and a cold. In an ever increasingly warm world, we’d expect less tornadic activity not more.

        Mostly, try a different approach than trying to score points off of human suffering and loss of life.

        James Sexton

      • suyts says:

        Mostly, ……sorry about that….. Apparently, I’m a bit too touchy about the Joplin tornado. Please accept my apologies.

  11. AndyW says:

    The high pressure that is increasing over the Canadian side will make it very warm this weekend.

    Seems some melt at the North Pole Webcam

  12. AndyW says:

    Actually on second thought I wonder if it is just the way the sun is catching the ice and making it look glassy. Hmmmm…

    • Scott says:

      Hard to say Andy. Really, it doesn’t matter right now, as the melt that far north probably won’t really kick in for at least another month. August will be when the real action is.


  13. Anything is possible says:

    This one is clearer……

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