Look for sea level to rise about 50mm (two inches) per week for the next forty years.
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Looks like Kopec disappeared into obscurity.. much like Ehrlich and Hansen should have.. these days they heap money and awards on failures like them.
There’s the slight little detail that there’s not enough water on earth to do that…
Never cloud global warming with the facts.
In the movie “2012” it flooded all the way to the base of Mt. Everest.
Kopec seems to have missed the fact that the last time sea level rose 100 metres was during deglaciation (starting about 18,500 yrs BP) when sea level started off 100 metres lower than present. So the implication is that the earth needs to go through a glaciation – deglaciation cycle in the next 40 years.
Crap, more crap, and then a massive dump. Turn on the fan.
You can’t prove that any forecast is wrong that far out, but it sure doesn’t seem to be trending in that direction.
Recreational Drugs will do that to a well meaning researcher!!!
The obvious question is, we can see what the Tuscaloosa News printed, but what did Prof Kopec actually say? Without wishing to question the dedication to accuracy displayed by the journalistic profession, let’s check to see what Prof Kopec has published. In Journal of Geography
Volume 70, Issue 9, 1971 he wrote” Projecting to 2050 A.D. as the earliest possible date for the maximization of this occurrence, it is expected that the expanding oceans will have reduced continental surfaces by approximately 17%, and roughly 19% of the population of the mid-21st century will have been relocated.” Unfortunately, as with many papers the complete document is payware, so I can’t see how he arrived at the figure. With an average ocean depth of 3,800 metres and 2% of all water currently locked into ice, the maximum possible increase if this ice entered the oceans is around 75 metres. However, no-one is predicting this rise in such a short space of time, nor is 100 metres possible, and even Kopec must know that. So who was exaggerating, Prof Kopec or the Tuscaloosa News reporter?
I think it is totally realistic that 19% of the population will be flooded out by 2050.
You bring up an excellent, if unintentional, point, Tom P: If he was making a prediction then he should have stated it unambiguously as such. If he wasn’t making a prediction, why was his fool mouth open in the first place?
Here’s my prediction: Tom P may or may not respond to this by 2050, and if he does then he may or may not have a valid point to make. Does that about cover it?
He described it as “tongue-in-cheek speculation”. And as predictions are generally about the future, it was most likely a prediction as well.
Although his figure of 100 metres is not feasible, his 26 quadrillion tons is only slightly underestimated compared with modern estimates, so both he and the journalist got that right. The intriguing part is how he gets 2050, a time-span of 80 years. If you suppose a forcing of 2W/m2, and that all this energy goes into melting ice and not heating the oceans, you get a time-span of less than 500 years to completely melt the ice. This is unrealistic, because most of the warming goes into the oceans. However, if you assume that a high proportion of the energy goes into ice melting, and suppose that the total forcing is higher than 2W/m2, and that only part of the ice melts and the rest slides into the oceans, then maybe you can get near his result.
IF you give elephants wings there is a possibility they could eventually learn to fly.
Most of what we see from the Chicken Little Brigade and the IPCC are Tongue-in-Cheek projections they want taken seriously until they fail.
Journal of GEOGRAPHY?! That says it all.
If you read the actual article, you will see that the quoted paragraphs are being used out of context to give a false impression. This is how dishonest propaganda artists work. They know some people will see through their lies, but they know that many won’t bother to check.
Right – that is why the authorities keep telling us that sea level hasn’t risen since 2008, as reported by the ESA Envisat satellite.
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