I removed the horizontal displacement over the last nine days to make it clear just how little melt has occurred in the Beaufort Sea. The ice floes are not changing much in size or shape, yet. They undoubtedly will later in the summer.
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Even more evidence of a really high minimum this year. I am sure Peter and Neven are still willing to bet.
OK You can bet for 6 million and Neven can bet for a record minimum. I’m happy to take both of your money.
You do realise this implicitly admits that you know the final minimum will be worse than 2006 – otherwise why would you offer to take a bet from Tony on it being >6 million? So all your bluster about 2011 “tracking” 2006 is self-admitted hogwash.
God forbid anyone should state a scientific observation without having some agenda behind it.
Eh? I’m making no comment on your scientific observations – I’m commenting on the fact that you say you’d happily take Tony’s money if he bet on the minimum being over 6 million. That’s not a scientific observation, it’s a financial one!
Exactly Peter, it stopped tracking 2006 months ago but Steve kept going on about it because he wanted it to be high, probably backed up with PIPS data.
Sadly it stopped tracking 2006 and started tracking 2010. Now it is tracking 2007 closest.
If we have a terrible summer from now on it will be 5.5. If we have a normal summer it will be 4.5 to 5 and if it is a very good summer weather wise ( sunshine) then it will be about 4.0.
Also, the temps up there are a lot warmer than -2C so there is lots of melt going on, once again the denialists are saying it is only the wind … yeah right.
You are a complete moron
Mommy, will there be any polar bears when I grow up?
No Billy, they are all being crushed by ice floes being squeezed together by Global Warming.
You’ve got it all wrong – when all that ice has melted, Ursus Maritimus will be stranded on land, and won’t be able to reach its prey, seals, which will be safe on the now-vanished ice.
current Beaufort Sea Ice Area
You’re right. Looks like the last days the area stays the same.
The sun is already headed south and melting seems to be slowing. With all the thick ice in place, the 2007 record appears to be very safe.
How does melting seem to be slowing? There has already been more 100 000 + melt days in July in 2011 than in 2010 in the whole of 2010.
For the last 4 year the average melt in July was about 2.5 million per month, in August it was 1.9. So for an average summer from now on it gives the final as 4.6, hardly meaning 2007 is safe…..
Most of the recent melt is in the Hudson and Baffin bays. They have no effect on the summer minimum.
We’ll see when the final extent is reached who is the moron Steve 😉
Just to point out at this point I have been closer to the final than you in the last 2 years. Ahem.
Is this your new MO, just make up complete crap?
Do you mean like 2009 where you and Anthony Watts were saying 5.5+ or perhaps 2010 where you had your bullseye that was still way out due to the late melt?
I’ve got a good memory Steve 😉
A few days ago you were claiming that I forecast 6.0 for 2011. You are an idiot.