Can There Be Any Doubt?

The record thin, record rotten ice is melting like crazy in the record heat. Maybe it will get down to 2.0, 1.0. or 0.0 this summer?

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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11 Responses to Can There Be Any Doubt?

  1. Brian G Valentine says:

    hmm.. got a long way to go get down to that.

    Did it occur to anyone that the heat transfer to melt that much ice has to come from the water and not the air, and there is no circulation pattern or ocean temperature gradient large enough to do it?

    • The 2007 summer “melt” was largely due to compaction, rather than melt.

    • Scott says:

      The energy can also come from the sun, particularly if soot aerosols have vastly increased the albedo after dry (or even wet) deposition onto the surface.


      • Brian G Valentine says:

        hmm, I don’t think you’re going to get the soot needed to do that. The cruddiest northern snow there is, around the Arkhangelsk frozen coal electricity operation in Russia doesn’t show that much melting from the soot around it

      • Scott says:

        Last I knew, the effects of aerosol collection on snow/ice melt was poorly understood but seemed to be fairly significant. That came from a scientific workshop/conference I attended just last month. Remember, these things could be collecting on the surface for months/years (whereas Arkhangelsk gets a relatively constant monthly precipitation amount throughout the year).

        Additionally, it might just not be soot, a primary aerosol, but it could also be secondary organic aerosol that forms quite a distance away from the source.


  2. Peter Ellis says:

    Hey Steve, are we still tracking 2006? Could we have another of your pretty graphs to check?

  3. AndyW says:

    Here is the latest daily figures for melt from 2011


    You can compare this to 2007 for the same time period


    2007 seems a lot more high and low compared to 2011. 2011 is still going strong on melt but as Steve says lets see what happens in the true Arctic basin rather than the outskirts …

    By the way the 2007 was not due just to compaction so I am not sure why Brian thinks it was. It reminds me of WUWT who still cling to all the ice going out of various straights, clinging to this one mechanism when it is obviously a combination of all, not dependent on what you want it to be 🙂

    It’s funny because Scott etc have tried to point them in the direction and they still ignore it!

    Steve’s analysis of 2007 is far better than there’s, although I say most was melt in situe and he says compaction. One thing is for certain it was not Framm straight or Nares in the main, it all happened on the Russian side, either melt or compaction. Bridges in the Nares strait was a bit player.


    • Clearly you want to bet on a record minimum.

    • Scott says:

      clinging to this one mechanism when it is obviously a combination of all, not dependent on what you want it to be

      And there’s where the heart of the matter is…in attribution, not prediction (though proper attribution would allow very good long-term prediction).

      What many people on both sides don’t realize is that it’s not just GHG or winds or SSTs or cloud cover or aerosols, and it isn’t even GHG and winds and SSTs and cloud cover and aerosols. It’s more like a bizzaro mixture of all these above. Say something like:

      GHG and winds and SSTs and cloud cover and aerosols and winds*SSTs and cloud cover*aerosols and winds*SSTs*cloud cover….

      You get the idea, no single mechanism describes it or even comes close.


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