How Far To The Record?

The green area represents the amount of ice that needs to melt in the next eight weeks – to surpass the 2007 melt line.

Red below shows how much ice melted yesterday.




About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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14 Responses to How Far To The Record?

  1. AndyW says:

    Looks a bridge too far to me.



  2. Tony Duncan says:


    YOU HAVE them now. Since the ice has stopped melting, you can safely bet 6.5 Million at a THOUSAND to one odds!!! I will set up the deals, since you guys all think I am an alarmist, I can go to the actual alarmists and make it look like I have TOTALLY scammed you. Just give me 5% of the winnings.

  3. AndyW says:

    Better money shot

    Bremen should be used for all these maps in my opinion so we can see the bleed more clearly/


  4. AndyW says:

    Tony, I don’t think your last post adds to the scientific debate to be honest.

    What is your final minima for this year? I did 4.75 early in the year and now think closer to 4.2. What is your estimate and why for the minima?


    • Scott says:

      I don’t think it was meant to add to it, LOL.


    • Tony Duncan says:


      you obviously aren’t familiar with the concept of taunting. Steve and I excel at that (though in all humility I give Steve the nod)

      Wow. no one has asked me for my prediction about something like this before. Being as I just retaught myself basic calculus 4 years ago and got a b- in statistics in college in 1977, and reading what you folks have written and seeing the current predictions… My vote is 4.6. Lower than 2010, but I think 2007 was anomalous looking at the maps of each years minimum. Also it is lower than Scott’s prediciton, so if I am right I can poke him about it, and of course if I am wrong, I had no standing to make any prediction at all ;-).
      Also it is the same prediction as Lukovitch who use are the only ones to use a “heuristic dynamics” approach and that sounds pretty cool to me.

      • Scott says:

        Tony, what metric are you going by? This year, most people seem to be settling with the NSIDC monthly Sept average. That number is normally higher than the JAXA daily minimum that I’m using (though NSIDC’s daily numbers are typically lower than JAXA’s). Thus, your number isn’t lower than mine after all. Even if it were, I’ve disclosed my method so I could always calculate the uncertainty ex post facto to save my hide. 😛


      • Tony Duncan says:


        I am using the meta NSIDC/JAXA composite derivative metric. Very hi tech. You probably wouldn’t understand it.

      • Me says:

        What a maroon. Got it, 🙂

  5. dmmcmah says:

    Discussions of ice extent at the north pole need to take into account winds. You won’t see this on the National Geographic Channel:

    PASADENA, Calif. – A new NASA-led study found a 23-percent loss in the extent of the Arctic’s thick, year-round sea ice cover during the past two winters. This drastic reduction of perennial winter sea ice is the primary cause of this summer’s fastest-ever sea ice retreat on record and subsequent smallest-ever extent of total Arctic coverage…..

    Nghiem said the rapid decline in winter perennial ice the past two years was caused by unusual winds. “Unusual atmospheric conditions set up wind patterns that compressed the sea ice, loaded it into the Transpolar Drift Stream and then sped its flow out of the Arctic,” he said. When that sea ice reached lower latitudes, it rapidly melted in the warmer waters.

  6. Andy WeissDC says:

    If the ice is so thin, why won’t it melt?

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