My Arctic Forecast For The Next Week

The end of July is here and sea ice extent is starting to become somewhat predictable. Here is my forecast for August 1.

This is based on the fact that in 2007 there was very rapid ice loss occurring in the East Siberian Sea and Arctic Basin. Neither of which we are seeing this year.

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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16 Responses to My Arctic Forecast For The Next Week

  1. Latitude says:

    I think the 2007 numbers are complete and total bullshit………….

    The Russians were running icebreakers in and out of there as fast as they could. 2007 was when they were trying to claim half of the Arctic as their territorial waters and claiming the shelf as theirs for oil and gas exploration…
    The main job of icebreakers is to break up ice damns, and it’s the ice damns that have helped to keep ice in the Arctic in the past.

  2. Gator says:

    What are they waiting for? ; )

  3. Peter Ellis says:

    Thanks for this. Could you put a numerical figure on the line you’ve drawn above? Easier to keep track that way. It looks like you’ve projected the previous week’s average trend forward by a week. If my maths are right, that corresponds to an extent of ~6,500,000 on 30th July. Can you confirm?

  4. Andy WeissDC says:

    It will probably end up being somewhere in the middle of the pack. Of course, the alarmists have this hot July as their new poster child. DC had a min of 85 today that would be an all time record high min. Also, this July is on course to be the hottest July and hottest month in DC history, beating the record that was set just last year. The last two summers have been miserable. But as they say, records are meant to be broken.

  5. J Calvert N says:

    According to the graph 2007 and 2011 Ice extents are now equal. I have been looking at this:

    Is it my imagination? Or is it an optical illusion? But they don’t “look” equal. 2011 “looks” more extensive already. By July 22 2007 the Chukchi, East Siberian & Beaufort seas all had less ice. The Laptev sea was sort of similar – except for the area near and around the Severnaja Zemla islands which had more ice in 2007. Do they really balance out? We’ll see in the next week or so I guess. The Cryosphere Today graphs deliberately omit ice in the 15% to 30% concentration band. Maybe that has something to do with it.

  6. Paul H says:

    While the Arctic may be warmer currently, the Antarctic over the last 5 years is averaging 0.54C cooler than the 1980’s according to the UAH data for the SH summer – D/J/F.

    This year the figure was 0.53C colder.

  7. Murray says:

    I’m just wondering how long it’s gonna take to get back to this!!

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