Quantifying The Death Spiral Of Climate Science


In 2008 Mark Serreze declared that the Arctic was in a death spiral

Arctic Ice in “Death Spiral,” Is Near Record Low
Mason Inman
for National Geographic News
September 17, 2008

The Arctic Ocean’s sea ice has shrunk to its second smallest area on record, close to 2007’s record-shattering low, scientists report.

The ice is in a “death spiral” and may disappear in the summers within a couple of decades, according to Mark Serreze, an Arctic climate expert at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

Arctic Ice in “Death Spiral,” Is Near Record Low

In 2008, James Hansen declared that we were at a tipping point due to ice loss at both poles which was going to decimate life on the planet. (Note that Romm describes Hansen as being plural.)

Since the same date in 2008, Arctic ice has increased by more than 15%. Global sea ice area is fifth highest on record for the date. The breathtaking ignorance of the experts is indeed breathtaking.

The graph below shows April 1 to April 1, which was the peak day in 2012.

About stevengoddard

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13 Responses to Quantifying The Death Spiral Of Climate Science

  1. Andy DC says:

    A very nice recovery. Makes the alarmists look like total fools. They will go all out to “adjust” or just simply lie about this incline. Or say the science is still sound and that this is only a pause before superduper expontial warming sets in. Or a result of low sunspots, La Nina, evil Chinese aerosols. Whatever!

  2. daveburton says:

    The blue graph looks like arctic ice area is holding steady, when averaged over an annual cycle. However, the red line is bogus. The upward slope is an artifact of the fact that the start/stop point is in springtime, which makes the graph start with a summer and end with a winter.

    BTW, I think you should sue Mr. Garwin.

  3. daveburton says:

    I’d like to see it graphed all the way back to the beginning of the data, in ~1973, not 1979 or 2008.

  4. Michael D Smith says:

    Slope is still down after correcting for cyclical pattern… -0.189 million km^2/yr… See chart at:


    • daveburton says:

      The modeled trend is down, but the actual trend is flat.

      Look at the ends of that graph closely, comparing the pink (modeled) curve to the yellow (actual) ice extent.

      Look especially at the upper and lower peaks at the left end. The pink (modeled) peaks are well above the actual (yellow) ice extents (both minimum and maximum!) at the left (2008-09) end of the graph. That’s because the pink (modeled) curves show a declining trend which does not exist in the actual ice extent data.

  5. Michael D Smith says:

    OK, here is my attempt. You will have clicked on different spots than I did, but this is the data I extracted using EnGauge (a chart digitizer) :
    Download the sea ice excel sheet…
    Looks reasonably close. Need a better original to have a better result.


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