NASA’s Amateur Hack Vs. The Professionals

Hansen forecasts a strong El Nino almost every year, because he is desperate to get GISS above zero emissions scenario C.

Check out his spectacularly failed ENSO forecast from July, 2011. ESSIC had it almost perfect, while Hansen had it inverted.

Summary of ENSO Model Forecasts

Hansen is leading the pack again this year with his El Nino forecasts..

Summary of ENSO Model Forecasts


About stevengoddard

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4 Responses to NASA’s Amateur Hack Vs. The Professionals

  1. chris y says:

    The second graph is an excellent bellwether for the trustworthiness of climate science predictions. Two months into the future, the array of models predict a temperature increase of 0.5 C, +/- 0.5 C.

    In other words, it is a linear extrapolation from the previous monthly trend, with a bunch of noise added in to make it look scientificky.

    • gregole says:

      Isn’t that also known as forecasting by persistence? The future will look a lot like the past give or take a tiny fraction…maybe go up a little; maybe not so much. I mean, temperature can go up, down, or stay the same. A forecast of up a little or not covers two out of three.

  2. Don Gaddes says:

    The current One Solar/Earth Year ‘Dry’ Cycle is now affecting Australia (since January 1, 2012.) As Australia is among the last longitudinal Regions to be affected by the planetary orbit of this Cycle,(thirty degrees longitude/month with the orbit of the Earth’s Magnetic Field) Europe and America (and most of Asia) are now experiencing the subsequent Two Solar/ Earth Year ‘Wet’ / Normal Period, ( arriving Australia January 1, 2013.) Note the current ‘Wet’ Europe, and the beginnings of a ‘Wet’ America. It should also be noted that the Two Solar/Earth Year ‘Wet’/Normal Period, will be followed by an extreme Five Solar/Earth Year ‘Dry’ Cycle (drought.) affecting Australia 2015 – 19.
    ENSO and El Nino/ La Nina have nothing to do with it!
    An updated version of ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ Alex S. Gaddes (1990) (with ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts to 2055,) is available as a free pdf from

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