Bill McGuire, Professor of Geophysical and Climate Hazards at University College, London has just outdone all the fraudsters before him (by a considerable margin) in today’s UK Telegraph. There is a tremendous amount of material to work with, but I am just going to concentrate on one piece at a time.
He described Alaska, where average winter temperatures have already risen by three degrees centigrade in the last half century,as “the canary in the cage”. Earthquakes and seismic shocks have increased there over recent decades as ice sheets have thinned,and landslides have become more frequent as permafrost biding rock to mountainsides has thawed. There has also been a similar increase in landslides in the Alps, the Caucuses and in New Zealand.
This is what the University of Alaska has to say about Alaska warming.
If a linear trend is taken through mean annual temperatures, the average change over the last 6 decades is 3.0°F. However, when analyzing the trends for the four seasons, it can be seen that most of the change has occurred in winter and spring, with the least amount of change in autumn.
Considering just a linear trend can mask some important variability characteristics in the time series. The figure above shows clearly that this trend is non-linear: a linear trend might have been expected from the fairly steady observed increase of CO2 during this time period. The figure shows the temperature departure from the long-term mean (1949-2011) for all stations. It can be seen that there are large variations from year to year and the 5-year moving average demonstrates large increase in 1976. The period 1949 to 1975 was substantially colder than the period from 1977 to 2011, however since 1977 little additional warming has occurred in Alaska with the exception of Barrow and a few other locations. The stepwise shift appearing in the temperature data in 1976 corresponds to a phase shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from a negative phase to a positive phase.
When analyzing the total time period from 1951 to 2001, warming is observed, however the 25-year period trend analyses before 1976 (1951-1975) and thereafter (1977-2001) both display cooling, with a few exceptions.
McGuire is being wildly dishonest about Alaska warming, which occurred almost overnight 35 years ago. It had nothing to do with CO2. And Alaska is coming off a record cold and snowy winter – with record sea ice.
So Very, Very Cold In Alaska For January with Impressive Records
Feb 1, 2012; 1:33 PM ET
The month of January has gone down as one of the coldest on record for portions of Alaska, especially the central and western sections. If you live in the states and wonder where all the cold air has been, this is where some of it has been residing.
Some of the coldest low temperatures of the month occurred in the last few days.
Fort Greely: minus 50 on Jan. 29
Eagle: minus 58 on Jan. 29
Circle Hot Springs: minus 58 on Jan. 29
Kandik River: minus 64 on Jan. 29
Chicken: minus 59 on Jan. 29
Fort Yukon: minus 66 on Jan. 31
Many places had either the coldest January on record, or one of the coldest, and some places set the coldest month ever on record.
As far as earthquakes go, the largest earthquake in North American history occurred forty eight years ago in Anchorage. It had nothing to do with glacial loss. Complete BS from the professor.
As far as glacial loss goes, Alaska’s most famous glacier retreated more than five feet per day from 1789 to 1874. It obviously had nothing to do with CO2.