By: Dr. Ricky Rood (Weather Underground)Published: June 2, 2012So I want to end this blog with a party trick. We have had 327 months in a row above the average temperature of the 20th century. If we played the game that there was a 50% chance of each month being above (heads) or below (tails) average, we have now rolled heads 327 times in a row. How likely is that? I think that is one half raised to 327th power, which is about 1 chance in a number that is 1 with 98 zeros after it. That makes buying a mega lotto ticket look like a solid investment. We live in a extraordinary spring in an extraordinary times. After a rocky start, my potatoes look pretty good..
The first problem with his stupid analogy is that older temperatures are adjusted downwards and recent temperatures are adjusted upwards. This guarantees that all recent temperatures are too high, because the people in charge cheated.
The second problem is that even if temperatures had of been completely flat for the last 327 months, they would still be “above average.” Ricky’s trick tells us absolutely nothing about the trend.
Is Rood being intentionally deceptive, or is he just not very bright?
I vote not bright.
Maybe this idiot should consider that occasionally flipping coins you’re going to get a bunch of heads in a row but that has no impact with your next flip or the one after that.
Well another problem with that is it ignores natural causes like the 98 El Nino that bumped temperatures up. And that there has been a downward trend ever since, so temperatures are adjusting back to the recent average. Or that we don’t know how changes in solar cycle or cosmic rays and PDO shift are going to impact the overall climate as far as cooling.
It isn’t a coin flip. If you are looking on the second floor of a building, the chances of finding something on the first floor are zero.
Wow he sure knows how to throw an exciting party. I’m sure with his party tricks, it’s nothing but a sausage fest. lol
Q: Is Rood being intentionally deceptive, or is he just not very bright?
It is the homogenization that makes it appear to have been above average for so long.
This is what it looks like when you look at a smaller part of the world (and BC isn’t that small – 944,735 km²)
Or look at Summers in HADCET.
Up and down … 3C colder than 1976
If the dice are loaded, there is a 100% chance that they are loaded.