Solar Max Arrives

NEARLY-BLANK SUN: The departure of active sunspot AR1504 has left the Earth-facing side of the sun quiet and nearly blank. Only one small emerging sunspot interrupts the empty expanse photographed this morning by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory:

SpaceWeather.com — News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

h/t to Kirk Myers

About stevengoddard

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20 Responses to Solar Max Arrives

  1. omnologos says:

    Earth-facing? I thought we would be having whole-Sun views by now?

  2. Kyle K says:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEREO
    Yes, we have sats out there able to see the far side. However, for comparison to historical records we only count the earth facing side.

    Interesting to note how often we’ve nearly had a blank sun this year.

  3. Andyj says:

    I thought to get a Solar update. I searched badly but these two sites came up in the list…

    “Solar Storm Warning – NASA Science
    6 Apr 2011 … “The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one,” she says. If correct, the … Dikpati’s forecast puts Solar Max at 2012.
    science.nasa.gov/ science-news/ science-at-nasa/ 2006/ 10mar_stormwarning/

    Solar Cycle 24 and 2012 – The Complete Idiots Guide to 2012
    May 27, 2009. Mitch Battros reports: Solar Cycle 24 has begun – and it has been predicted by NASA, NOAA and ESA to be up to 50% stronger than its ‘record …
    http://www.colinandrews.net/2012-Debate-Solar.html

    Flies in the face of Dr Habibullo Abdussamatovs prediction for 100 years of cooling.
    http://iceagenow.info/2011/11/russian-scientists-predict-100-years-cooling/

    Now I’ve not entered these sites above but one thing seems clear. TOTAL FAIL!
    Nearly all the people who are labelled “deniers” predicted low Sunspot activity. Must be the healthy mindset.

    • jimash1 says:

      Ya gotta wonder… if Dr. Hansen and his dark minions were kind of counting on these
      predictions to keep their curves up while teaching people to deny that the sun influences the climate.

  4. Don Gaddes says:

    No wonder the Sun is looking ‘blank’. It is tired of being misquoted and misunderstood.

  5. Andy DC says:

    I wonder if Joe B. is going to be right about this upcoming winter.

    • Joseph Bastardi says:

      So do I

      The upcoming winter is based on the double nina with an el nino, cold pdo. This happened in 1951-1952, 1972-1973 1976-1977, 2009-2010. I posted on this matter for Steve and the crucial aspect will be the center of the warm water in the central Pacific and enough spike in the PDO warm ( thats right it has to spike warm) so we get the maximum pressure falls in the areas of the Pacific we want them, then the rises over N America. In 1951-1952 the cold PDO completely overwhelmed the pattern and we had an el nino winter that looked like La Nina. In 72-73 it was half and half and a great winter in the south, a non winter in the northeast. I think 51-52 will be thrown out of the mix when push comes to shove, but 72-73 has to be watched. There are 4 kinds of el nino winters out of the 15 plus we have had, and the analogs I have now have whittled the candidates to 4. Incidentally the hurricane season forecast had the 57 and 86 analogs in it. Both were fast starting with Texas hits including cat 4 Audrey in 1957 and Cat 1/2 Bonnie in 1986

      Now to what I was going to say. We are going to get our wish here over the coming 20 years to test our theories on the oceans and suns. If there is not the type of response to at least a fall off to where we were in the 1970s, then it does open the door for the idea that the co2 might have something to do with it. But for my side of the debate, with the stacking of the deck we just went through with the sun and oceans ( of course the sun since the little ice age, the oceans periodically also) it means we should be able to see if we are completely right.. mostly right… or there are doubts. I think Steve will be putting something I wrote on this matter in rebuttal to Dr Masters in a while.

      By the way, the winter forecast snowfall right now, for all reading this, asks you to take your snowfall in the winters of 02-03,05-05,06-07, 09-10 and see what you come up with as an average and that is where I am . We have the nation 2-4 below normal. This is certainly not as bad as the late 70s, but would certainly be one heck of a winter. But if you live lets say in Ohio, look at those years and average them and I think that is where you will be in relation to normal.

      • kirkmyers says:

        Thanks for responding, Joe. I’m worried about the sun. The solar capacity to heat the oceans is not there. What happens when the Pacific (and the Altlantic) is not warming?

        I’m smart enough to know that the so-called human-induced-CO2 effect on the planet is the equivalent of a flee on an elephant’s ass. It’s so small it’s not measurable.

        Always follow the money.

  6. Jeremy J. says:

    I want a BIG southern winter….

  7. kirkmyers says:

    One of my favorite comments:

    “In the desert there is very little water vapour, and water vapour is the strongest heat-amplifying so-called greenhouse gas, especially considering it’s overwhelming radiative properties as compared to CO2. Yet in the desert, much higher temperatures are reached than are achieved at similar latitudes in areas where there is an abundance of water vapour.

    “If the greenhouse effect was really in operation, regions with more water vapour in the air should get much hotter than regions without, yet the reverse is seen to be the case. It doesn’t get any simpler and clear-cut than this: where there should be a stronger greenhouse effect, the opposite is what is actually found.”

    – Mr. Postma

    • That isn’t really a fair analogy. Humid air is less dense than dry air, and tends to convect upwards – causing cooling. Deserts also get hot because of exposed rock and a lack of evaporative cooling.

  8. papiertigre says:

    Is it warmer at the Sun’s equator, than it is at the Sun’s “north (or south) pole”?

    Just wondering.

    • Sparks says:

      That’s an unusual question 🙂

      I would think that the Sun’s surface temperature varies relative to it’s current state, but is the sun’s current state influenced by the mass and configuration of the solar system? if so and if the orbital plane stretches the Sun’s equator then the surface area around the equator would be greater and be prone to more activity and therefor would have a tendency to appear warmer than the poles.

      Or not!

  9. Casper says:

    Steven,
    You’ve got a good sense of humour 😉
    I really hope this will bring a serve global cooling and set end of AGW hysteria.

  10. Don Gaddes says:

    El Nino/La Nina PDO ‘flip’/AGW, University of East Anglia bullshit Joe. All you have given us is gobbledegook. As with your ENSO colleagues over the last forty years, you have not come up with any valid, viable, or substantiated forecast ‘mechanism’. I invite you to read ‘Tomorrows Weather’ Alex S. Gaddes (1990) You will see the next Two Solar/Earth Year Winters for the U.S. will be ‘Wet’/Normal Periods, (ie. more precipitation/snow,etc.) China has already experienced the first of these ‘Wet’/Normal Years. (Thirty degrees longitude/month, with the Westward Solar orbit of the Earth’s Magnetic Field.) This Two Solar/Earth Year ‘Wet’Normal Period will be followed by a severe Five Year ‘Dry’ Cycle, starting in the longitudes immediately West of Australia in 2014, and reaching Australia in early 2015. An updated version of the above work is available as a free pdf from dongaddes93@gmail.com
    The fact you are being paid for your garbled hit-or-miss forecasts Joe, just reiterates the old adage ‘A fool and his money are soon parted’!

  11. Dave N says:

    Yeah, but we’ll be bombarded by billions of neutrinos on December 21st, causing the crust of the Earth to split apart, and Danny Glover to be squished by a boat.

  12. Don Gaddes says:

    You have inadvertently raised a crucial question Dave N. (Even allowing for your ‘flippancy’ – intended or not.)
    Alex S. Gaddes defined the ‘Dry’ Cycles he discovered and documented as a result of unknown emanations from the Sun’s 27day rotation rate latitude, (Sunspots) He termed this phenomenon ‘the Weather Factor’ but did not make a finding on its constitution or ‘mechanics’.
    He was, however interested enough in the seeming disappearance and reappearance of Neutrinos on Earth, to suspect them as being likely ‘candidates’, and produced a preliminary paper on the subject (unpublished.)
    Recent work on the Solar induced production of Ozone and Ultraviolet in the Earth’s upper atmosphere – and the subsequent ‘break-up’ of Jet Stream cloud, would seem to lend his suspicions credence. ( Stewart Clark, article in New Scientist.) If an increase and decrease of Neutrinos is found to mirror the onset and decline of these ‘Dry’ Cycles, the ‘Weather Factor’ question may be closer to being solved.

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