Guest post by Joe Bastardi
A rebuttal to Weather Underground statement
“In the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been going in opposite directions.”
First of all, Dr Jeff Masters, as a PHD in METEOROLOGY and someone running a business, is someone is naturally have respect for. You don’t accomplish what he has without having to face an overcome challenges. So I look at this differently than some of the ignorant or deceptive missives from others I have challenged before on this site, many from the climatologists that make statements that show me they don’t look at the weather.
Lets look at the last 400 years of sunspot cycle
Lets now look at the PDO since 1900
Suppose the reason for the “little ice age” was indeed the lack of solar activity. That means we are starting from a very cold , below normal global temp, at the end of the 2 minimums, so if the sun were controlling all this, then we should be warming up in response, which we have.
Now let me opine this. With sunspot activity backing away a bit the last 50 years, its still, relative to what we saw to put us into the Little ice Age, well above the threshold of where it was to put us into the cold period. So it would stand to reason that we would still warm.
Now bring in the warm PDO over the last 35 year. You claim we are still warming. But you make the argument against co2 unwittingly because you can easily see that the sun and then the warm cycle of the PDO, would easily explain this!!!
Now let look at the last 15 years of the 35 year period. Even with a warm pdo, and a still ramped up solar cycle 23, the global temp leveled off, and since the pdo flip has started a jagged retreat!
The chart on the bottom left (above) is strength of correlation of the ocean to temps and on the right the sun to temp.
This is line with climate cycle theory, that we have reached an equilibrium in the earths temps that the sun and the oceans have brought us to now and the theory we Neanderthals have ( okay me, I am the Neanderthal since I forecast every day and don’t have a phd and have been force to research all this, to make up for my obvious limitations , the same ones that make me rely on ACTUAL DATA rather than virtual models) that the combination of the oceanic cycles turning the other way, and the solar cycles going into the tank mean cooling is starting. MY FORECAST IS OUT THERE DR MASTERS, THAT AS MEASURED BY OBJECTIVE SATELLITE TEMPS, SOMETHING WE DID NOT HAVE TILL THE END OF THE LAST COLD CYCLE OF THE PDO IN 1978,THE EARTHS TEMP BY 2030 WILL RETURN TO THE LEVELS THEY WERE IN THE LATE 1970S. Pray tell, what is your forecast, and instead of trying to explain what happened l lets make the foreacst, since we have an objective way of looking at things, MAKE THE FORECAST FOR THE COMING 20 YEARS.
Is the warming to resume, or as I say, and this is not even really bringing the sun in which in many circles is huge, we will return to levels in 2030 we were at in the late 1970s. And the wild card is volcanoes. This is part of the triple crown of cooling I introduced in 2008 that brought the usual Bastardi Bashers out in force, which of course they will be after they read this.
In the meantime, while the global temp pauses and is well under projections of doom and gloom even as co2 runs off on its merry way, let me put this question to Dr Masters
Just where is the funding going to come from so a future Dr Jeff Masters can get the grants to study, perhaps start a business and by doing so, whether I think you are right or wrong, affect people for the better around him. We are handcuffing our society with an agenda that to many looks to be totally off base, and at the very least pales compares to the problems we have today. The site of people starving in our streets while the economy flounders, the tax base ( some of that goes to grants for our universities too) collapses and misery mounts, is inexcusable in a practical and ethical manner and far short of the intentions of people that founded this nation for what its supposed to be about. You fight the devil you know, not something that may be no more than a Utopian fantasy. It is immoral and unethical to foster misery now because of what may be nothing tomorrow. So make your forecast, for we have the means to test it. Mine has been out there for 4 years and the data says its making a point, even if it happens to be hot in the US ( less than 10% of the globe) for a period.