I was riding my bike over to Whole Foods down a flooded bike trail earlier, when I had a Eureka moment. (Something about water seems to stimulate those.) I realized that is possible to empirically disprove global warming theory.
Venus has a fixed lapse rate of about 8ºK/km through its troposphere, which is similar to Earth – despite very different atmospheric chemistry. This in itself is strong evidence that temperature is not closely tied to atmospheric composition, but is not the basis of this proof.
The atmosphere of Venus is about 95% CO2, and at 1 bar pressure (50km elevation) the greenhouse effect is weak – because there is little water vapor. Note that the absorption bands of CO2 are very narrow compared to H2O, which means that Venus has a weak greenhouse effect at one bar pressure.
However, the pressure at the surface of Venus is almost 100 bars, and that does something to the CO2. The absorption bands broaden and occupy much more of the LW spectrum. What this means is that the greenhouse effect on Venus is much stronger near the surface than it is at 50km.
If the greenhouse effect controlled the temperature profile of the Venusian atmosphere, we would necessarily have to see a greater lapse rate closer to the surface – where the greenhouse effect is stronger. This is because the increased resistance to radiative heat transfer closer to the surface, would create a larger temperature gradient. But we don’t see that – the lapse rate is fixed throughout Venus’ troposphere . This means that the temperature profile of Venus troposphere is not controlled by the greenhouse effect. There is no way to get around this argument.
Conclusion : Even a huge increase in the greenhouse effect as we approach the surface of Venus, has no impact on the lapse rate. Observations on Venus demonstrate that increasing the greenhouse effect even by a large amount, has little impact on the temperature profile of a convective atmosphere. i.e. greenhouse gas driven global warming theory simply does not work in a convective atmosphere.
David Appell told me that I would get a Nobel Prize if I could disprove global warming. I expect him to nominate me.
BTW – here are some pixs I took on my flooded bike ride in Fort Collins this evening. The air here smells like drowned campfire.