USHCN2 – Cheating Our Socks Off

(CNN) — The mainland United States, which was largely recovering Monday from a near-nationwide heat wave, has experienced the warmest 12 months since record-keeping began in 1895, a top government science and weather agency announced Monday.

The report from the National Climatic Data Center, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, does not take into account blistering heat from this month, with 2,116 high temperature marks either broken or tied between July 2 and July 8 in communities nationwide.

Past 12 months warmest ever recorded in United States – CNN.com

We have been hearing that the last 12 months is the warmest in US history. It is not surprising, because USHCN is massively cheating – by adding 2.5 degrees on to 2012 temperatures relative to 100 years ago.

The graph below plots the adjustments which are being made to the average monthly mean temperatures.

Data is taken from these three files.

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2/monthly/9641C_201207_F52.max.gz
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2/monthly/9641C_201207_raw.max.gz
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2/monthly/9641C_201207_tob.max.gz

Note that it is not TOBS which is the big offender. They have some massive data tampering going on after the year 2000. The US temperature record is corrupted beyond comprehension.

 

About stevengoddard

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24 Responses to USHCN2 – Cheating Our Socks Off

  1. nigelf says:

    It’s all they have left now, when the data show you’re wrong adjust it so it fits the story. I hope I live to see the day when they’re in jail because if I had the power that’s where they’d be for a long long time.

  2. Andy DC says:

    It is beyond all comprehension.

  3. Robert Austin says:

    Stunning demonstration, Steven. I don’t even understand the TOBS adjustment. One would think a TOBS adjustment should warm the past, not cool. After all, there is typically one max temperature per day and if one does not read that maximum, one will read a cooler temperature.
    Thus any TOBS correction should be warming. Am I missing something here?

    • If the thermometer is reset in the afternoon, max temperatures are too high. If the thermometer is reset in the morning, min temperatures are too low.

      • Eric Barnes says:

        I suppose TOBS should be fairly easy to detect in the daily data.
        I’d be surprised if TOBS is truly biased more high than low.

      • Eric Barnes says:

        You’d think there’d be strong regional influences and time of year influences as well. I’d guess that winter would be the major problem in most places.

      • mi cro says:

        Stephen, I posted links to my science 2.0 pages yesterday where I’ve done the daily temp rise minus the nightly drop based on ncdc’s global summary of days data.
        I’ll get you real links on Monday.

  4. Eric Barnes says:

    Just visually inspecting there is a stark contrast between what I’m assuming are AWS’s where there are 200+ unique temps per year vs. non automated ones where there are at most 110 or so unique temps per year. I was checking 2011 vs 1934. Must be something peculiar about the equipment in 1934 and the older equipment in 2011? A lot of repeated values but not on consecutive days. It seems odd that temps would be reported to within a tenth of a degree in 1934. Unless maybe they did whole degrees F and then converted to C?

    • Eric Barnes says:

      That’s it. The measurements in tenths of a degree C are from a conversion from whole degrees F on the examples I’m looking at. Time to look at that TOBS code with that thought in mind.

    • Eric Barnes says:

      IMO,
      The TOBS adjustment should be positive rather than negative. I checked the uniqueness of max vs min values per station for the US in the 1930s and the max values are far more unique. Of 36,000 station, year values, only 4,000 station year combinations had min values that were more unique than their max counterparts. Approximately 30,000 station, year values had max temps being more unique than their min values). Hard to imagine how that doesn’t translate to a cooling bias?

  5. kirkmyers says:

    The only way NCDC and GISS can find (i.e. “manufacture”) a warming signal is through data manipulation — interpolation, homogenization and TOBS adjustments. The one human influence on temperatures that we do no know about — the urban heat island (UHI) effect — is conveniently ignored or minimized.

    Incidentally, most of the warming that occurred in the 20th century – roughly 0.6°C – took place prior to 1940, before rising CO2 levels started to rise quickly in response to postwar industrialization. The only period in which CO2 and temperature rose simultaneously is from the late 1970s to the late 1990s. These two decades represent the entire case for manmade global warming and all the panic that has ensued.

    • Eric Webb says:

      Yep, but now as temperatures have diverged from CO2 since 1998, the global warming nutcases are getting even more desperate to keep this lie going, even if that means adjusting temperatures several times or more, and then trying to quiet anyone who tries to dispute their absurd claims.

  6. kramer says:

    Steve, thanks for all your work in exposing these adjustments.

    I can’t believe these people are doing this as if it’s nothing. They must think they have some ‘protection’ from the MSM.

  7. kramer says:

    I’d love to see Marc Marano take this info (and the other ‘adjustment’ you’ve noted) and present them on Fox News.

  8. Michael D Smith says:

    Interesting that this chart ended 12 years ago:

    Why are they hesitant to update it I wonder?
    More on the adjustments: According to this, the sum of all adjustments is about 1/2 degree.
    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushcn/ushcn.html

  9. Eric Barnes says:

    Where is the TOBS code?
    It doesn’t seem to be here …
    ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2/monthly/software/
    Maybe it’s not published?

  10. richard says:

    utterly depressing,

  11. Mi Cro says:

    Here’s a chart of Daily avg temp increase minus nightly temp drop (times 100), for the Northern Hemisphere (starting @23N Lat), from 1950 to 2010. This is from NCDC’s Global Summary of Days data.

    You can read more about this here: http://www.science20.com/blog/3763

  12. Eric Barnes says:

    The definition of what TOB is according to this T Karl paper is not what one might naturally think.
    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450%281986%29025%3C0145%3AAMTETT%3E2.0.CO%3B2
    2. Preliminary concepts
    “The term “time of observation bias” (TOB) in this article is defined as the difference between the monthly mean temperatures derived from a station which ends its climatological day at midnight (local standard time) and the same station which ends its climatological day at any other time.”

  13. Eric Barnes says:

    A good smoke test for the USHCN TOB adjustment would be to …
    * find a hourly station from the hourly data here … ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/noaa/ that is in USHCN
    * compute it’s monthly average MAX and MINS and mean.
    * compare with the USHCN TOB MAX/MIN in the USHCN monthly.

  14. Jon says:

    Just like in the old USSR. Nothing happend no feeling of positive development. So they changed the history/perception of the past, made it worser, to create a feeling of moving forward at a standstill.

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