Stillborn El Nino?

The 2012 El Nino is looking pretty sickly at this point.

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12 Responses to Stillborn El Nino?

  1. tomwys says:

    Possible Labor Pains of El Niño related to the death of La Niña?

  2. Don Gaddes says:

    Ask Joe Bastardi and his ENSO colleagues where it went!
    The current diminishing One Solar/Earth Year ‘Dry’ Cycle is now over the Pacific and Australia. Replaced over America by the Two Solar/Earth Year ‘Wet’/Normal Period that started over China last March.(thirty degrees longitude/month with the Westward orbit of the Earth’s Magnetic Field.)
    (see ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ Alex S. Gaddes 1990)

  3. Anthony says:

    Joe is still fairly adamant it will come on in a weakish fashion, but im guessing it already has got to that weakish fashion, though by definition it hasnt made it yet. And i rate Joe as the best there is in regards to analogs and prediction.

    I dont see any WWB or Kelvin Waves anytime soon either, and CFS has already peaked Nino 1 and 2. Im not sure what CFS sees to increase the Nino in the next few months??
    And i think you are right Steve about the cold feeding down into the basin from the North Eq Current, anytime we have had an El nino since 1998 this area had been either warm or average, never as cold as it is now, and we are starting to see some cold anomalies appear along the South American coast. I guess we are witnessing a cold PDO El Nino, which is very weak.

  4. John says:

    During the 2009 El Nino it was cold from the Northern Eq current but not to this degree

  5. Don Gaddes says:

    So it’s a ‘Clayton’s’ El Nino?
    As a member of the ‘Guild of ‘ENSO’ Apologists’ Joe does conveniently ‘create’ El Ninos and La Ninas whenever a Dry or Wet scenario requires explaining. No physical manifestation or method necessary, just a continuing, deceitful forty year old Fantasy.

  6. ozspeaksup says:

    as an aussie I would like la nina to hang round a while, see the enso meters dropping back to the.5.
    Don I shared your pdf a while back with a cluey older chap I know and he knows a lot of aus, runs bees and knows the under ground waters etc. hethought you were pretty well right.
    in spite of the two years almost..of good to overly good rains, i and he, have been noting that certain species of tres are dying, and its not water excess. the actual groundwaters are dropping again. weird.

  7. johnmcguire says:

    I hope that Joe is right about the weak warm spell coming on because it might give us that long pleasant fall for the sake of the apple crops that ripen later. Those long warm falls make the elk hunting a little more difficult though so either way I see a win from the weather , hahaha , man I do love hunting and eating elk. Well unlike the agw crowd I’m open to watching and learning so let’s see what the weather brings us and what we can learn from it , and let the co2 increase as it’s good for the crops. Man sometimes I’m so blessed I start worrying that I might be selfish. Hey Don Gaddes , I believe I follow what you are saying and the theory that you support , I don’t know as I agree with it because I don’t think the cycles are clear. I will watch and see as I’ve only been following these opposing theories for a few years now and I’m waiting for the physical evidence to conclude one way or another. I’m leaning toward Joe as I think he has been hitting the predictions better than anyone else at this time. And hey it is weather , so you can’t rule out the God factor , I’m certain the bible is correct and follow that belief in my own weak human fashion.

    • Eric Webb says:

      Joe doesn’t think fall will be long and pleasant, he thinks summer will end early, and fall will much colder than normal, and lead to an early start to winter for the eastern two-thirds of the US, and he actually agrees with the CFS forecast which shows this.

  8. Don Gaddes says:

    If you have read the pdf and have questions John, I would be happy to answer them. Hope you and Joe have a ‘long, pleasant Fall,’ but I doubt it, weather-wise. ( Note, the tornadoes in Poland,
    Nothing to do with ENSO!
    The revised version of ‘Tomorrow’s Weather ‘ Alex S. Gaddes 1990, (with ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts to 2055,) is available as a free pdf from dongaddes93@gmail.com

    • Eric Webb says:

      “Nothing to do with ENSO!” Don, if you are going to continue to make these bogus claims please back it up with evidence and explain to us, how ENSO has nothing to do with climate and specifically precipitation.

  9. Don Gaddes says:

    The current Two Solar/Earth Year ‘Wet’/Normal Period is now affecting the North American West Coast and into the Pacific (depending on the longitude,) following the One Solar/Earth Year ‘Dry’ Cycle to Australia, ( Westward at thirty degrees of longitude/month with the Solar orbit of the Earth’s Magnetic Field.) This means ALL of the United States will experience an early Winter, this year AND next year. This will be followed by a severe Five Year ‘Dry’ Cycle (reaching Australia 2015 – 19.)

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