Visualizing The North Pole Meltdown

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2012/18.jpg

The ice is about six feet thick at the North Pole, and if it continues to melt at its current rate will only be six feet thick come mid-September.

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34 Responses to Visualizing The North Pole Meltdown

  1. jak says:

    That webcam is malfunctioning and has not updated for several days. It has a companion which shows the view in the opposite direction:

    Now, why would any honest person, in their right mind, pick malfunctioning Webcam 2 over operational Webcam 1?

    • So you must be ready to bet on on a record low.

      Cut the crap jak. Put your money down on the table,

      • Tony Duncan says:

        Steve,
        I tried to bet with you based on your views, but although vaguely worded you apparently won’t accept my offer of free money at 50:1 odds
        I assume since you only appear to be willing to accept an even bet that you believe there is close to an even chance that there will be a minimum.
        that seems to be about what the corrupt fraudulent experts seem to think as well. Good to see that you finally agree with them about something
        but, since you seem so worried about this, I am wondering if you are preparing your fall back position in case there IS a new minimum.
        You have been going on for so many years about the “recovery” of the arctic ice, that I can understand how upsetting it has been the last three years to have it so clearly be doing anything but recovering. Of course your followers will accept whatever excuse you make if there is a minimum, but you should try to think of something that an outside observer might be able to believe.
        my suggestion is that the arctic is in a new stable state and the ice will stay around this extent for quite awhile and eventually recover in 10 or 20 years. That should give you at least another 2-5 years of some sort of vague credibility among the extreme right.

      • Tony Duncan says:

        Wow,
        breaking news!
        Steve Goddard thinks there is an even chance that there will be a record minimum low Sea ice extent in the arctic this year.

        here I only think there is about a 1/3 chance of that, and I actually think the arctic is heading toward an ice free summer in the next decade or so

      • Tony Duncan says:

        Steve,

        How silly of me to equate the words “even odds” with “even chance”. What WAS I thinking.
        So Steve what DO you think the odds are of a new record minimum? Remember just a few months ago the ice extent was “normal” and there is this cold front you are talking about and the ice is meters thick at the north pole. Apparently you think the odds are better than 50:1 because you refuse my bet even with all the guarantees I gave you.

      • Neil says:

        I’m mathematically and scientifically incompetent enough to bet on a record low. Can I bet?

    • Scott says:

      I don’t see the “opposite”. I see surface melt ponds on top of the ice. Very common and not a big deal. How do I know they’re melt ponds? Because they’ve been there for “several days” and the ice hasn’t disappeared (which it would have if it was true total melt). Now, why would any honest person, in their right mind, claim that the other direction shows the “opposite”?

      -Scott

  2. Brian says:

    3 days is hardly several, but I see your point.

  3. pjie2 says:

    You know, there are two mass balance buoys at the same observatory, on different thickness areas of the floe. One started on MYI of ~280cm, one on MYI of ~130cm. Current melt rate is 3cm / day top melt and 1/3 cm / day bottom melt.
    (note: top melt is being measured at the thinner site and bottom melt at the thicker site, because each site has had one of its sonar sounders stop working)

    So, it would be more correct to say “the ice at the North Pole is between five and ten feet thick, and if the current melt rate continues, will be around 5 feet thinner by the end of July. The thinner parts of it are thus likely to melt out by the September minimum.”

    Not quite as catchy though.

    • pjie2 says:

      Blah, brain fart. Ice will be ~1.5 feet thinner by the end of the month, maybe 2 feet thinner by mid Sept, unless the ice edge retreats a lot farther.

    • Billy Liar says:

      So it would be more correct to say ‘you are completely wrong’.

      Very catchy.

    • So you must be ready to bet on a record minimum.

      The top melt must be that new kind of melt which has no visible effects on the surface.

      • MFKBoulder says:

        No visilble effects? Good joke,
        just contact an optometrist near you:

        • Two days of snow melt on the surface indicates that the ice is melting quickly?

          This is what it looked like on July 12.

          Your hysterics are not very impressive.

      • pjie2 says:

        Melt ponds at camera 1 started developing on the 3rd of July, and were quite extensive by the 5th. At camera 2, melt ponding was just starting to get underway (look at the far right for example) on the 12th.

        You can see the rate of top melt at the co-located sonar buoy here:
        http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2012C.htm

        Currently about 3cm a day – top melt started at the buoy location on the 13th, so it’s possible it’s closer to camera 2 than camera 1. It will be worth watching how this develops, although be aware that the whole observatory is now half way to the Fram Strait, indicating that the interior of the pack is unusually fragmented and mobile.

  4. Brian G Valentine says:

    Here we are, studying ebb and accumulation of Arctic sea ice, which has been variable from year to year since it was observed, with no attempt to correlate it with anything except “global warming.”

    The whole thing is the most asinine abuse of scientific inquiry since the days of Archimedes, it is sickening

    I can’t even look at it anymore

  5. Marian says:

    “Bear drowning season is now in full swing.”

    And if they get to float on ice from Greenland to Iceland over summer. They have a good chance of being shot for not carrying a valid passport. 🙂

  6. Bernard J. says:

    Sadly, I was late to this party.

    Still, I’m interested in what the current odds might be…

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